TORONTO
MAPLE LEAFSTOR
20-10-2 | Road
6
BUFFALO
SABRESBUF
11-17-4 | Home
3
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Chris Tanev
#8 | Defense@
GOALTENDER
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
#1 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Tanev | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
| Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen | None-None | 9.82 | 0.692 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
--
GAA
9.82
--
Save %
0.692
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
MAPLE LEAFS
100%
SABRES
0%
MAPLE LEAFS
--
SABRES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
BUFFALO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Buffalo)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around BUF -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUF)
TOR By 1 goal
17.2%
TOR By 2-3 goals
18.1%
BUF By 1 goal
17.7%
BUF By 2-3 goals
19.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
2.65
TORONTO
Buffalo
2.7
BUFFALO
Simulated Score
Toronto
4
TORONTO
Buffalo
3
BUFFALO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Sabres
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Maple Leafs
Win
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Sabres (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -0.1
D
Sim
Maple Leafs (-0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 5.4
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 14, 2026
TOR @ BUF
2 - 3
Jan 27, 2026
BUF @ TOR
7 - 4
Oct 25, 2025
BUF @ TOR
3 - 4
Oct 24, 2025
TOR @ BUF
3 - 5
Apr 15, 2025
TOR @ BUF
4 - 0
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5)
+8.9% more
Buffalo: 5.8
vs
Toronto: 5.3
Hits (L5)
+12.1% more
Toronto: 25.7
vs
Buffalo: 22.6
Shots on Goal (L5)
+9.5% more
Toronto: 26.9
vs
Buffalo: 24.3
Power Play % (L5)
+3.3%
Toronto: 15.6%
vs
Buffalo: 12.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
2.7
6
BUF Score
2.7
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
14.2 / 13.8
11.0 / 21.0
Faceoff %
49.3 / 52.4
42.6 / 57.4
Hits
22.6 / 25.7
24.0 / 26.0
Power Play %
12.2 / 15.6
0.0 / 33.3
Shots on Goal
24.3 / 26.9
27.0 / 29.0
Takeaways
5.8 / 5.3
3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BUF
TOR
BUF
TOR
ML
67%
2-1
50%
2-2
67%
2-1
50%
2-2
ATS
33%
1-2
0%
0-4
100%
3-0
75%
3-1
TTL
33%
1-2
100%
4-0
33%
1-2
75%
3-1
Contextual Game News
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