Home / NFL Projections NFL / Titans @ Colts TEN @ IND

TENNESSEE

TITANSTEN

3-11  |  Road

30
FINAL
Sun, Dec 22 • 1:00 PM ET
Lucas Oil Stadium
View Odds Details →

INDIANAPOLIS

COLTSIND

6-8  |  Home

38
Key Game
Jaylon Jones
KEY GAME

Jaylon Jones

#42 | Cornerback
@
Rigoberto Sanchez
KEY GAME

Rigoberto Sanchez

#8 | Punter
Player
Jaylon Jones None-None
Rigoberto Sanchez None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TITANS
27%
📊
COLTS
73%
TITANS --
COLTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
35.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 40%
Under 0 60%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
INDIANAPOLIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (Indianapolis)
TitansTEN (-3.5) 0 ColtsIND (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Titans Cover

46.1%

Colts Cover

53.9%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around IND -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IND)

TEN By 1-6 points

16.0%

TEN By 7-13 points

14.3%

IND By 1-6 points

16.8%

IND By 7-13 points

16.4%

AI Model Projected Score
17.1
TENNESSEE
18.48
INDIANAPOLIS
Simulated Score
24
TENNESSEE
21
INDIANAPOLIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Colts Win
73% Win Prob
B
Sim Titans Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Colts (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -1.4
C
Sim Titans (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 35.6
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 45.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 26, 2025 TEN @ IND 14 - 38
Sep 21, 2025 IND @ TEN 41 - 20
Dec 22, 2024 TEN @ IND 30 - 38
Oct 13, 2024 IND @ TEN 20 - 17
Dec 3, 2023 IND @ TEN 31 - 28
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +35.8% more
Indianapolis: 127.9 vs Tennessee: 94.2
Net Passing Yards (L5) +26.8% more
Tennessee: 225.9 vs Indianapolis: 165.4
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +15.0% more
Tennessee: 0.5 vs Indianapolis: 0.3
First Downs (L5) +9.8% more
Tennessee: 19.2 vs Indianapolis: 17.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TEN Score 17.1 30
IND Score 18.5 38
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.3 / 19.2 19.0 / 18.0
Net Passing Yards 165.4 / 225.9 123.0 / 242.0
Rushing Yards 127.9 / 94.2 335.0 / 65.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.5 0.53 / 0.45
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.55 / 0.45
Total Yards 293.4 / 320.0 458.0 / 307.0
Turnovers 2.7 / 2.8 1.0 / 3.0
Yards Per Play 4.8 / 5.2 7.4 / 5.4
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
11%TICKETS89%
4%MONEY96%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
39%MONEY61%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
54%MONEY46%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TEN
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -7.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
IND Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -0.5 ATS +/-: +1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TEN
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -7.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
IND Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: -0.5 ATS +/-: +1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
TEN
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -5.5
IND
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +5.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IND
TEN
IND
TEN
ML
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
ATS
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
TTL
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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