TORONTO
MAPLE LEAFSTOR
19-10-2 | Road
5
DALLAS
STARSDAL
19-11-0 | Home
3
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Chris Tanev
#8 | Defense@
GOALTENDER
Casey DeSmith
#1 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Tanev | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
| Casey DeSmith | None-None | 0.00 | 1.000 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
--
GAA
0.00
--
Save %
1.000
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
MAPLE LEAFS
0%
STARS
100%
MAPLE LEAFS
--
STARS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around TOR -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
TOR By 1 goal
18.6%
TOR By 2-3 goals
22.1%
DAL By 1 goal
16.0%
DAL By 2-3 goals
15.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
3.1
TORONTO
Dallas
2.79
DALLAS
Simulated Score
Toronto
5
TORONTO
Dallas
3
DALLAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Maple Leafs
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Maple Leafs
Win
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Maple Leafs (-0)
Win
Proj Goals: -0.3
D
Sim
Maple Leafs (-0)
Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 5.9
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 13, 2026
DAL @ TOR
6 - 5
Dec 21, 2025
TOR @ DAL
1 - 5
Jan 14, 2025
DAL @ TOR
4 - 1
Dec 18, 2024
TOR @ DAL
5 - 3
Feb 7, 2024
DAL @ TOR
4 - 5
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+46.0% more
Toronto: 26.0
vs
Dallas: 14.0
Faceoff % (L5)
+3.6%
Dallas: 55.6%
vs
Toronto: 52.0%
Power Play % (L5)
+3.0%
Dallas: 26.4%
vs
Toronto: 23.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
3.1
5
DAL Score
2.8
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
13.5 / 12.7
8.0 / 16.0
Faceoff %
55.6 / 52.0
46.9 / 53.1
Hits
14.0 / 26.0
9.0 / 25.0
Power Play %
2642.0 / 2339.0
0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
30.4 / 30.8
39.0 / 19.0
Takeaways
5.3 / 5.4
3.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
TOR
DAL
TOR
ML
33%
1-2
50%
2-2
33%
1-2
50%
2-2
ATS
0%
0-3
0%
0-4
33%
1-2
75%
3-1
TTL
100%
3-0
100%
4-0
33%
1-2
75%
3-1
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