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BUFFALO

SABRESBUF

11-15-0  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sun, Dec 15 • 5:00 PM ET
Scotiabank Arena
View Odds Details →

TORONTO

MAPLE LEAFSTOR

18-10-0  |  Home

5
Goaltending
Mattias Samuelsson
GOALTENDER

Mattias Samuelsson

#23 | Defense
@
Chris Tanev
GOALTENDER

Chris Tanev

#8 | Defense
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Mattias Samuelsson None-None -- -- --
Chris Tanev None-None -- -- --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
-- GAA --
-- Save % --
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
SABRES
100%
📊
MAPLE LEAFS
0%
SABRES --
MAPLE LEAFS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (Toronto)
SabresBUF (-3.5) 0 Maple LeafsTOR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Sabres Cover

46.4%

Maple Leafs Cover

53.6%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around TOR -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)

BUF By 1 goal

16.6%

BUF By 2-3 goals

16.8%

TOR By 1 goal

18.2%

TOR By 2-3 goals

20.6%

AI Model Projected Score
2.87
BUFFALO
3.05
TORONTO
Simulated Score
4
BUFFALO
6
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Maple Leafs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Maple Leafs Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Maple Leafs (+0) Win
Proj Goals: -0.2
D
Sim Maple Leafs (+0) Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 5.9
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 10.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 14, 2026 TOR @ BUF 2 - 3
Jan 27, 2026 BUF @ TOR 7 - 4
Oct 25, 2025 BUF @ TOR 3 - 4
Oct 24, 2025 TOR @ BUF 3 - 5
Apr 15, 2025 TOR @ BUF 4 - 0
Key Model Drivers
Power Play % (L5) +20.0%
Toronto: 22.6% vs Buffalo: 2.6%
Blocked Shots (L5) +19.7% more
Toronto: 17.1 vs Buffalo: 14.3
Takeaways (L5) +43.6% more
Buffalo: 6.5 vs Toronto: 3.6
Hits (L5) +17.3% more
Buffalo: 24.7 vs Toronto: 20.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BUF Score 2.9 3
TOR Score 3.1 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 17.1 / 14.3 4.0 / 16.0
Faceoff % 49.6 / 50.5 56.7 / 43.3
Hits 20.5 / 24.7 37.0 / 13.0
Power Play % 22.6 / 2.6 25.0 / 50.0
Shots on Goal 25.8 / 25.5 41.0 / 27.0
Takeaways 3.6 / 6.5 9.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
8%TICKETS92%
7%MONEY93%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
26%TICKETS74%
19%MONEY81%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
78%MONEY22%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
BUF
TOR
BUF
ML
50% 2-2
67% 2-1
50% 2-2
67% 2-1
ATS
0% 0-4
33% 1-2
75% 3-1
100% 3-0
TTL
100% 4-0
33% 1-2
75% 3-1
33% 1-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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