ATLANTA
HAWKSATL
14-12 | Road
102
MILWAUKEE
BUCKSMIL
13-11 | Home
110
AI Model Win Probability
HAWKS
100%
BUCKS
0%
HAWKS
--
BUCKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
229.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.7
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.7 points (Milwaukee)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIL -1.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)
ATL By 1-7 points
23.5%
ATL By 8-14 points
12.7%
MIL By 1-7 points
26.7%
MIL By 8-14 points
18.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
114.07
ATLANTA
Milwaukee
115.72
MILWAUKEE
Simulated Score
Atlanta
113
ATLANTA
Milwaukee
122
MILWAUKEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Bucks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bucks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Bucks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -1.7
D
Sim
Bucks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 229.8
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 235.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 14, 2026
MIL @ ATL
99 - 122
Mar 4, 2026
ATL @ MIL
131 - 113
Jan 19, 2026
MIL @ ATL
112 - 110
Mar 30, 2025
ATL @ MIL
145 - 124
Mar 4, 2025
MIL @ ATL
127 - 121
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+12.5% more
Milwaukee: 5.5
vs
Atlanta: 4.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+11.4%
Milwaukee: 41.5%
vs
Atlanta: 30.1%
Field Goal % (L5)
+7.4%
Milwaukee: 51.7%
vs
Atlanta: 44.2%
Free Throw % (L5)
+1.8%
Milwaukee: 76.3%
vs
Atlanta: 74.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
114.1
102
MIL Score
115.7
110
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
41.5 / 30.1
31.1 / 41.7
Assists
24.7 / 29.7
28.0 / 23.0
Blocks
5.5 / 4.9
8.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
51.7 / 44.2
45.3 / 42.7
Free Throw %
76.3 / 74.5
66.7 / 64.7
Rebounding
38.7 / 51.6
47.0 / 44.0
Steals
7.0 / 9.3
8.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
14.9 / 13.9
13.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
Advantage
48-40-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
MIL
32-50-0
(39.0%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
MIL
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.1
MIL
39-43-0
O: 47.6% / U: 52.4%
Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
ATL
MIL
ATL
ML
64%
61-35
50%
52-52
60%
49-32
55%
48-40
ATS
68%
65-31
53%
55-48-1
60%
49-32
55%
48-40
TTL
55%
53-43
53%
55-48-1
100%
81-0
100%
88-0
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