BUFFALO
SABRESBUF
11-14-0 | Road
2
WASHINGTON
CAPITALSWSH
20-6-0 | Home
4
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
#1 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Logan Thompson
#48 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen | None-None | 3.14 | 0.900 | -- |
| Logan Thompson | None-None | 2.00 | 0.905 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
3.14
GAA
Ldr 2.00
0.900
Save %
Ldr 0.905
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
SABRES
0%
CAPITALS
100%
SABRES
--
CAPITALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
BUFFALO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Buffalo)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around BUF -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUF)
BUF By 1 goal
19.0%
BUF By 2-3 goals
23.4%
WSH By 1 goal
15.4%
WSH By 2-3 goals
14.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Buffalo
3.79
BUFFALO
Washington
3.36
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
Buffalo
4
BUFFALO
Washington
6
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Sabres
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Capitals
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Sabres (-0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -0.4
D
Sim
Capitals (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.2
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 10.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 4, 2026
BUF @ WSH
2 - 6
Mar 12, 2026
WSH @ BUF
2 - 1
Nov 1, 2025
WSH @ BUF
3 - 4
Mar 30, 2025
BUF @ WSH
8 - 5
Jan 6, 2025
WSH @ BUF
3 - 4
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+32.1% more
Buffalo: 24.6
vs
Washington: 16.7
Takeaways (L5)
+27.6% more
Buffalo: 5.7
vs
Washington: 4.1
Shots on Goal (L5)
+17.2% more
Washington: 32.5
vs
Buffalo: 27.8
Power Play % (L5)
+12.7%
Washington: 16.5%
vs
Buffalo: 3.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BUF Score
3.8
2
WSH Score
3.4
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
15.2 / 16.4
17.0 / 10.0
Faceoff %
55.1 / 48.6
45.6 / 54.4
Hits
16.7 / 24.6
27.0 / 25.0
Power Play %
16.5 / 3.8
66.7 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
32.5 / 27.8
31.0 / 21.0
Takeaways
4.1 / 5.7
4.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
BUF
WSH
BUF
ML
100%
3-0
67%
2-1
67%
2-1
67%
2-1
ATS
100%
3-0
33%
1-2
67%
2-1
100%
3-0
TTL
33%
1-2
33%
1-2
33%
1-2
33%
1-2
Contextual Game News
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