ANAHEIM
DUCKSANA
10-13-0 | Road
2
TORONTO
MAPLE LEAFSTOR
17-9-0 | Home
3
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Lukas Dostal
#1 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Anthony Stolarz
#41 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lukas Dostal | None-None | 3.05 | 0.909 | -- |
| Anthony Stolarz | None-None | 3.00 | 0.875 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
3.05
GAA
Ldr 3.00
0.909 Ldr
Save %
0.875
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
DUCKS
100%
MAPLE LEAFS
0%
DUCKS
--
MAPLE LEAFS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around TOR -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
ANA By 1 goal
6.7%
ANA By 2-3 goals
3.8%
TOR By 1 goal
17.6%
TOR By 2-3 goals
37.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Anaheim
1.82
ANAHEIM
Toronto
3.79
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Anaheim
2
ANAHEIM
Toronto
5
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Maple Leafs
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Maple Leafs
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Maple Leafs (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
D
Sim
Maple Leafs (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 5.6
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 30, 2026
TOR @ ANA
5 - 4
Mar 12, 2026
ANA @ TOR
4 - 6
Mar 30, 2025
TOR @ ANA
3 - 2
Dec 12, 2024
ANA @ TOR
2 - 3
Feb 17, 2024
ANA @ TOR
2 - 9
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5)
+33.3% more
Toronto: 19.2
vs
Anaheim: 14.4
Faceoff % (L5)
+5.2%
Toronto: 46.2%
vs
Anaheim: 41.0%
Power Play % (L5)
+1.7%
Toronto: 13.3%
vs
Anaheim: 11.6%
Shots on Goal (L5)
+22.0% more
Anaheim: 29.1
vs
Toronto: 22.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ANA Score
1.8
2
TOR Score
3.8
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
19.2 / 14.4
10.0 / 16.0
Faceoff %
46.2 / 41.0
57.6 / 42.4
Hits
23.8 / 29.6
16.0 / 22.0
Power Play %
13.3 / 11.6
0.0 / 100.0
Shots on Goal
22.7 / 29.1
33.0 / 28.0
Takeaways
4.4 / 4.5
0.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
ANA
TOR
ANA
ML
50%
2-2
33%
1-2
50%
2-2
67%
2-1
ATS
0%
0-4
33%
1-2
75%
3-1
33%
1-2
TTL
100%
4-0
33%
1-2
75%
3-1
0%
0-3
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