TORONTO
MAPLE LEAFSTOR
16-8-0 | Road
2
PITTSBURGH
PENGUINSPIT
11-13-0 | Home
5
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Chris Tanev
#8 | Defense@
GOALTENDER
Owen Pickering
#38 | D| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Tanev | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
| Owen Pickering | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
--
GAA
--
--
Save %
--
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
MAPLE LEAFS
0%
PENGUINS
100%
MAPLE LEAFS
--
PENGUINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around TOR -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
TOR By 1 goal
19.7%
TOR By 2-3 goals
29.2%
PIT By 1 goal
12.3%
PIT By 2-3 goals
9.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
3.17
TORONTO
Pittsburgh
2.21
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
Toronto
TORONTO
Pittsburgh
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Maple Leafs
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Maple Leafs (-0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim
Loss
Proj Goals: 0.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 5.4
D
Sim
u0.0
Loss
Proj Total: 0.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 23, 2025
PIT @ TOR
3 - 6
Nov 29, 2025
TOR @ PIT
7 - 2
Nov 3, 2025
PIT @ TOR
3 - 4
Mar 2, 2025
TOR @ PIT
6 - 5
Dec 7, 2024
TOR @ PIT
2 - 5
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+44.8% more
Toronto: 28.1
vs
Pittsburgh: 15.5
Faceoff % (L5)
+2.9%
Toronto: 49.4%
vs
Pittsburgh: 46.5%
Takeaways (L5)
+13.3% more
Pittsburgh: 4.5
vs
Toronto: 4.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
3.2
2
PIT Score
2.2
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
16.9 / 17.1
18.0 / 22.0
Faceoff %
46.5 / 49.4
64.7 / 35.3
Hits
15.5 / 28.1
17.0 / 18.0
Power Play %
13.9 / 13.3
40.0 / 33.3
Shots on Goal
25.7 / 24.8
29.0 / 27.0
Takeaways
4.5 / 4.0
2.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
TOR
PIT
TOR
ML
75%
3-1
50%
2-2
25%
1-3
50%
2-2
ATS
75%
3-1
0%
0-4
75%
3-1
75%
3-1
TTL
25%
1-3
100%
4-0
50%
2-2
75%
3-1
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