MILWAUKEE
BUCKSMIL
11-10 | Road
105
BOSTON
CELTICSBOS
18-4 | Home
111
AI Model Win Probability
BUCKS
100%
CELTICS
0%
BUCKS
--
CELTICS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
237.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.7
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.7 points (Boston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BOS -7.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)
MIL By 1-7 points
14.2%
MIL By 8-14 points
5.1%
BOS By 1-7 points
25.7%
BOS By 8-14 points
25.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Milwaukee
115.13
MILWAUKEE
Boston
122.8
BOSTON
Simulated Score
Milwaukee
110
MILWAUKEE
Boston
122
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Celtics
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Celtics
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Celtics (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.7
D
Sim
Celtics (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 237.9
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 232.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 3, 2026
BOS @ MIL
133 - 101
Mar 2, 2026
BOS @ MIL
108 - 81
Feb 1, 2026
MIL @ BOS
79 - 107
Dec 11, 2025
BOS @ MIL
101 - 116
Dec 6, 2024
MIL @ BOS
105 - 111
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+26.4% more
Boston: 7.0
vs
Milwaukee: 5.5
Steals (L5)
+19.1% more
Boston: 8.5
vs
Milwaukee: 7.1
Rebounding (L5)
+16.5% more
Boston: 46.8
vs
Milwaukee: 40.1
Free Throw % (L5)
+8.2%
Boston: 80.5%
vs
Milwaukee: 72.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIL Score
115.1
105
BOS Score
122.8
111
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.9 / 43.6
32.1 / 37.9
Assists
26.1 / 25.4
27.0 / 16.0
Blocks
7.0 / 5.5
6.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
45.9 / 48.7
46.0 / 42.6
Free Throw %
80.5 / 72.3
87.5 / 82.4
Rebounding
46.8 / 40.1
41.0 / 51.0
Steals
8.5 / 7.1
5.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
13.7 / 15.9
6.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIL
32-50-0
(39.0%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
BOS
Advantage
59-30-0
(66.3%)
Margin: 7.3
ATS +/-: +2.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIL
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
BOS
Advantage
51-38-0
(57.3%)
Margin: 7.3
ATS +/-: +2.2
⚖️ Over/Under
MIL
39-43-0
O: 47.6% / U: 52.4%
Total +/-: +1.4
BOS
32-57-0
O: 36.0% / U: 64.0%
Total +/-: -3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
MIL
BOS
MIL
ML
57%
61-46
64%
61-35
53%
47-41
60%
49-32
ATS
59%
61-43-3
68%
65-31
53%
47-41
60%
49-32
TTL
56%
60-47
55%
53-43
100%
88-0
100%
81-0
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