WASHINGTON
CAPITALSWSH
17-6-0 | Road
3
TORONTO
MAPLE LEAFSTOR
16-7-0 | Home
1
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Charlie Lindgren
#79 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Anthony Stolarz
#41 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Lindgren | None-None | 1.00 | 0.952 | -- |
| Anthony Stolarz | None-None | 2.02 | 0.920 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
1.00 Ldr
GAA
2.02
0.952 Ldr
Save %
0.920
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
CAPITALS
100%
MAPLE LEAFS
0%
CAPITALS
--
MAPLE LEAFS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.7
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.7 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around TOR -1.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
WSH By 1 goal
8.0%
WSH By 2-3 goals
4.9%
TOR By 1 goal
18.5%
TOR By 2-3 goals
35.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
3.26
WASHINGTON
Toronto
4.98
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Washington
WASHINGTON
Toronto
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Maple Leafs
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Maple Leafs (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.7
D
Sim
Loss
Proj Goals: 0.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.2
D
Sim
u0.0
Loss
Proj Total: 0.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 8, 2026
WSH @ TOR
4 - 0
Dec 18, 2025
TOR @ WSH
0 - 4
Nov 28, 2025
TOR @ WSH
2 - 4
Dec 28, 2024
WSH @ TOR
5 - 2
Dec 6, 2024
WSH @ TOR
3 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+67.9% more
Toronto: 29.6
vs
Washington: 17.6
Takeaways (L5)
+16.0% more
Toronto: 4.5
vs
Washington: 3.9
Power Play % (L5)
+10.7%
Washington: 30.7%
vs
Toronto: 20.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
3.3
3
TOR Score
5.0
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
17.2 / 17.2
17.0 / 13.0
Faceoff %
51.2 / 51.5
45.8 / 54.2
Hits
29.6 / 17.6
25.0 / 16.0
Power Play %
1997.0 / 3068.0
0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
26.7 / 28.9
21.0 / 26.0
Takeaways
4.5 / 3.9
3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
WSH
TOR
WSH
ML
50%
2-2
100%
3-0
50%
2-2
67%
2-1
ATS
0%
0-4
100%
3-0
75%
3-1
67%
2-1
TTL
100%
4-0
33%
1-2
75%
3-1
33%
1-2
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