Home / NFL Projections NFL / Jaguars @ Titans JAX @ TEN

JACKSONVILLE

JAGUARSJAX

2-10  |  Road

10
FINAL
Sun, Dec 8 • 1:00 PM ET
Nissan Stadium
View Odds Details →

TENNESSEE

TITANSTEN

3-9  |  Home

6
Key Game
Logan Cooke
KEY GAME

Logan Cooke

#9 | Punter
@
👤
KEY GAME

Mason Kinsey

#12 | Wide Receiver
Player
Logan Cooke None-None
Mason Kinsey None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
JAGUARS
63%
📊
TITANS
38%
JAGUARS --
TITANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
35.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 20%
Under 0 80%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
TENNESSEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (Tennessee)
JaguarsJAX (-3.5) 0 TitansTEN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Jaguars Cover

49.2%

Titans Cover

50.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around TEN -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEN)

JAX By 1-6 points

16.4%

JAX By 7-13 points

15.2%

TEN By 1-6 points

16.5%

TEN By 7-13 points

15.6%

AI Model Projected Score
17.66
JACKSONVILLE
17.94
TENNESSEE
Simulated Score
24
JACKSONVILLE
27
TENNESSEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Titans Loss
38% Win Prob
D
Sim Titans Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Titans (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -0.3
C
Sim Titans (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 35.6
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 4, 2026 TEN @ JAX 7 - 41
Nov 30, 2025 JAX @ TEN 25 - 3
Dec 29, 2024 TEN @ JAX 13 - 20
Dec 8, 2024 JAX @ TEN 10 - 6
Jan 7, 2024 JAX @ TEN 20 - 28
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +19.9% more
Tennessee: 1.9 vs Jacksonville: 1.6
Rushing Yards (L5) +10.6% more
Tennessee: 86.7 vs Jacksonville: 78.4
Total Yards (L5) +10.1% more
Tennessee: 303.6 vs Jacksonville: 275.7
Net Passing Yards (L5) +10.0% more
Tennessee: 216.9 vs Jacksonville: 197.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
JAX Score 17.7 10
TEN Score 17.9 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 15.8 / 15.3 17.0 / 16.0
Net Passing Yards 216.9 / 197.3 146.0 / 220.0
Rushing Yards 86.7 / 78.4 126.0 / 71.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.5 / 0.46
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.4 0.53 / 0.47
Total Yards 303.6 / 275.7 272.0 / 291.0
Turnovers 1.9 / 1.6 0.0 / 2.0
Yards Per Play 5.2 / 4.8 4.4 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
19%TICKETS81%
25%MONEY75%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
49%MONEY51%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
83%TICKETS17%
75%MONEY25%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
JAX Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 12.8 ATS +/-: +11.1
TEN
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -7.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
JAX Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 12.8 ATS +/-: +11.1
TEN
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -7.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
⚖️ Over/Under
JAX
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -7.1
TEN
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -5.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEN
JAX
TEN
JAX
ML
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
ATS
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
TTL
25% 1-3
100% 4-0
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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