ATLANTA
HAWKSATL
11-11 | Road
119
MILWAUKEE
BUCKSMIL
11-9 | Home
104
AI Model Win Probability
HAWKS
100%
BUCKS
0%
HAWKS
--
BUCKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
233.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.3
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.3 points (Milwaukee)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIL -8.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)
ATL By 1-7 points
13.2%
ATL By 8-14 points
4.5%
MIL By 1-7 points
25.0%
MIL By 8-14 points
26.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
112.54
ATLANTA
Milwaukee
120.89
MILWAUKEE
Simulated Score
Atlanta
122
ATLANTA
Milwaukee
118
MILWAUKEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Bucks
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Hawks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Bucks (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -8.3
D
Sim
Hawks (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 233.4
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 240.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 14, 2026
MIL @ ATL
99 - 122
Mar 4, 2026
ATL @ MIL
131 - 113
Jan 19, 2026
MIL @ ATL
112 - 110
Mar 30, 2025
ATL @ MIL
145 - 124
Mar 4, 2025
MIL @ ATL
127 - 121
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+17.5% more
Milwaukee: 6.3
vs
Atlanta: 5.3
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+16.4%
Milwaukee: 48.8%
vs
Atlanta: 32.4%
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.9%
Milwaukee: 51.9%
vs
Atlanta: 49.0%
Steals (L5)
+25.6% more
Atlanta: 9.7
vs
Milwaukee: 7.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
112.5
119
MIL Score
120.9
104
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
48.8 / 32.4
33.3 / 28.1
Assists
26.6 / 30.9
23.0 / 29.0
Blocks
6.3 / 5.3
4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
51.9 / 49.0
42.3 / 44.1
Free Throw %
75.6 / 80.9
65.7 / 90.9
Rebounding
40.2 / 49.6
40.0 / 54.0
Steals
7.2 / 9.7
7.0 / 16.0
Turnovers
14.9 / 18.4
18.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
Advantage
48-40-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
MIL
32-50-0
(39.0%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
MIL
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.1
MIL
39-43-0
O: 47.6% / U: 52.4%
Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
ATL
MIL
ATL
ML
64%
61-35
50%
52-52
60%
49-32
55%
48-40
ATS
68%
65-31
53%
55-48-1
60%
49-32
55%
48-40
TTL
55%
53-43
53%
55-48-1
100%
81-0
100%
88-0
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