MILWAUKEE
BUCKSMIL
8-9 | Road
106
MIAMI
HEATMIA
7-7 | Home
103
AI Model Win Probability
BUCKS
100%
HEAT
0%
BUCKS
--
HEAT
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
221.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.9
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.9 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIA -5.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
MIL By 1-7 points
17.1%
MIL By 8-14 points
7.0%
MIA By 1-7 points
26.9%
MIA By 8-14 points
24.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Milwaukee
107.54
MILWAUKEE
Miami
113.42
MIAMI
Simulated Score
Milwaukee
105
MILWAUKEE
Miami
108
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Heat
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Heat
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Heat (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.9
D
Sim
Heat (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 221.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 213.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 12, 2026
MIL @ MIA
105 - 112
Feb 24, 2026
MIA @ MIL
117 - 128
Nov 26, 2025
MIL @ MIA
103 - 106
Oct 6, 2025
MIL @ MIA
103 - 93
Apr 5, 2025
MIL @ MIA
121 - 115
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+30.5% more
Miami: 8.8
vs
Milwaukee: 6.8
Free Throw % (L5)
+4.9%
Miami: 78.7%
vs
Milwaukee: 73.8%
Blocks (L5)
+44.3% more
Milwaukee: 6.4
vs
Miami: 3.5
Turnovers (L5)
+17.8% more
Milwaukee: 14.4
vs
Miami: 11.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIL Score
107.5
106
MIA Score
113.4
103
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.7 / 43.5
34.5 / 47.6
Assists
25.4 / 25.7
26.0 / 23.0
Blocks
3.5 / 6.4
2.0 / 7.0
Field Goal %
43.6 / 50.0
45.5 / 46.8
Free Throw %
78.7 / 73.8
76.7 / 82.4
Rebounding
48.2 / 46.2
38.0 / 41.0
Steals
8.8 / 6.8
6.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
11.8 / 14.4
8.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIL
32-50-0
(39.0%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
MIA
Advantage
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIL
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
MIA
Advantage
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
MIL
39-43-0
O: 47.6% / U: 52.4%
Total +/-: +1.4
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
MIL
MIA
MIL
ML
48%
46-50
64%
61-35
59%
48-34
60%
49-32
ATS
51%
49-47
68%
65-31
59%
48-34
60%
49-32
TTL
59%
57-39
55%
53-43
100%
82-0
100%
81-0
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