INDIANA
PACERSIND
6-9 | Road
117
MILWAUKEE
BUCKSMIL
6-9 | Home
129
AI Model Win Probability
PACERS
100%
BUCKS
0%
PACERS
--
BUCKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
222.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.3
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.3 points (Milwaukee)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIL -5.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)
IND By 1-7 points
18.1%
IND By 8-14 points
7.6%
MIL By 1-7 points
27.1%
MIL By 8-14 points
23.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Indiana
108.58
INDIANA
Milwaukee
113.88
MILWAUKEE
Simulated Score
Indiana
98
INDIANA
Milwaukee
112
MILWAUKEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Bucks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bucks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Bucks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.3
D
Sim
Bucks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 222.5
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 210.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 15, 2026
IND @ MIL
123 - 134
Feb 6, 2026
IND @ MIL
99 - 105
Dec 23, 2025
MIL @ IND
111 - 94
Nov 3, 2025
MIL @ IND
117 - 115
Apr 29, 2025
MIL @ IND
118 - 119
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+17.5% more
Milwaukee: 43.8
vs
Indiana: 37.3
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+3.9%
Milwaukee: 37.9%
vs
Indiana: 34.0%
Turnovers (L5)
+21.6% more
Indiana: 16.4
vs
Milwaukee: 12.9
Free Throw % (L5)
+16.3%
Indiana: 81.7%
vs
Milwaukee: 65.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
IND Score
108.6
117
MIL Score
113.9
129
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.9 / 34.0
47.2 / 32.4
Assists
26.2 / 24.9
33.0 / 30.0
Blocks
5.6 / 6.3
4.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
49.6 / 49.3
53.3 / 47.3
Free Throw %
65.4 / 81.7
80.0 / 74.1
Rebounding
43.8 / 37.3
44.0 / 46.0
Steals
8.0 / 9.4
10.0 / 11.0
Turnovers
12.9 / 16.4
18.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IND
19-63-0
(23.2%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
MIL
Advantage
32-50-0
(39.0%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IND
Advantage
40-42-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
MIL
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
⚖️ Over/Under
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.8
MIL
39-43-0
O: 47.6% / U: 52.4%
Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
IND
MIL
IND
ML
64%
61-35
48%
47-50
60%
49-32
54%
45-38
ATS
68%
65-31
59%
57-40
60%
49-32
54%
45-38
TTL
55%
53-43
54%
52-45
100%
81-0
100%
83-0
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