Home / NFL Projections NFL / Titans @ Texans TEN @ HOU

TENNESSEE

TITANSTEN

2-8  |  Road

32
FINAL
Sun, Nov 24 • 1:00 PM ET
NRG Stadium
View Odds Details →

HOUSTON

TEXANSHOU

7-4  |  Home

27
Key Game
Tommy Townsend
KEY GAME

Tommy Townsend

#3 | Punter
@
Ka'imi Fairbairn
KEY GAME

Ka'imi Fairbairn

#15 | Place kicker
Player
Tommy Townsend None-None
Ka'imi Fairbairn None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TITANS
13%
📊
TEXANS
88%
TITANS --
TEXANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
38.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 29%
Under 0 71%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.3
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.3 points (Houston)
TitansTEN (-3.5) 0 TexansHOU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Titans Cover

19.1%

Texans Cover

80.9%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around HOU -12.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)

TEN By 1-6 points

9.1%

TEN By 7-13 points

5.7%

HOU By 1-6 points

14.0%

HOU By 7-13 points

19.5%

AI Model Projected Score
12.87
TENNESSEE
25.12
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
34
TENNESSEE
21
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Texans Loss
88% Win Prob
A
Sim Titans Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Texans (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -12.3
D
Sim Titans (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 38.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 16, 2025 HOU @ TEN 16 - 13
Sep 28, 2025 TEN @ HOU 0 - 26
Jan 5, 2025 HOU @ TEN 23 - 14
Nov 24, 2024 TEN @ HOU 32 - 27
Dec 31, 2023 TEN @ HOU 3 - 26
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +19.0% more
Houston: 122.3 vs Tennessee: 102.8
First Downs (L5) +12.8% more
Houston: 19.3 vs Tennessee: 17.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TEN Score 12.9 32
HOU Score 25.1 27
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.3 / 17.1 12.0 / 19.0
Net Passing Yards 209.0 / 212.1 220.0 / 237.0
Rushing Yards 122.3 / 102.8 40.0 / 132.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.23 / 0.29
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.43 / 0.57
Total Yards 331.3 / 314.8 260.0 / 369.0
Turnovers 1.2 / 1.2 2.0 / 3.0
Yards Per Play 5.2 / 5.3 4.8 / 5.6
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
2%MONEY98%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
27%TICKETS73%
40%MONEY60%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
64%MONEY36%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TEN
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -7.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
HOU
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -6.3 ATS +/-: -7.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TEN Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -7.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
HOU
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -6.3 ATS +/-: -7.6
⚖️ Over/Under
TEN
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -5.5
HOU
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
TEN
HOU
TEN
ML
0% 0-4
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
ATS
0% 0-4
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
TTL
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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