Home / NBA Projections NBA / Timberwolves @ Raptors MIN @ TOR

MINNESOTA

TIMBERWOLVESMIN

8-6  |  Road

105
FINAL
Thu, Nov 21 • 7:30 PM ET
Scotiabank Arena
View Odds Details →

TORONTO

RAPTORSTOR

3-12  |  Home

110
AI Model Win Probability
TIMBERWOLVES
0%
📊
RAPTORS
100%
TIMBERWOLVES --
RAPTORS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
222.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.8
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.8 points (Minnesota)
TimberwolvesMIN (-3.5) 0 RaptorsTOR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Timberwolves Cover

78.3%

Raptors Cover

21.7%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MIN -7.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)

MIN By 1-7 points

25.5%

MIN By 8-14 points

26.1%

TOR By 1-7 points

14.0%

TOR By 8-14 points

5.0%

AI Model Projected Score
115.03
MINNESOTA
107.2
TORONTO
Simulated Score
110
MINNESOTA
114
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Timberwolves Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Raptors Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Timberwolves (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.8
D
Sim Raptors (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 222.2
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 224.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 5, 2026 TOR @ MIN 107 - 115
Feb 4, 2026 MIN @ TOR 128 - 126
Nov 21, 2024 MIN @ TOR 105 - 110
Oct 26, 2024 TOR @ MIN 101 - 112
Apr 3, 2024 TOR @ MIN 85 - 133
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +40.3% more
Minnesota: 9.6 vs Toronto: 5.7
Free Throw % (L5) +7.9%
Minnesota: 80.5% vs Toronto: 72.6%
Rebounding (L5) +24.0% more
Toronto: 46.9 vs Minnesota: 37.8
Blocks (L5) +15.8% more
Toronto: 5.6 vs Minnesota: 4.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIN Score 115.0 105
TOR Score 107.2 110
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.6 / 37.4 30.4 / 34.3
Assists 27.4 / 24.5 22.0 / 16.0
Blocks 5.6 / 4.8 1.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 48.7 / 48.1 51.4 / 41.3
Free Throw % 72.6 / 80.5 74.4 / 81.8
Rebounding 46.9 / 37.8 43.0 / 40.0
Steals 5.7 / 9.6 11.0 / 12.0
Turnovers 17.0 / 15.0 17.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
84%TICKETS16%
72%MONEY28%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
52%MONEY48%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
86%TICKETS14%
84%MONEY16%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN Advantage
55-39-0 (58.5%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
TOR
49-40-0 (55.1%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN
42-52-0 (44.7%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
TOR Advantage
46-43-0 (51.7%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
43-51-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3% Total +/-: +0.8
TOR
37-52-0
O: 41.6% / U: 58.4% Total +/-: -1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
MIN
TOR
MIN
ML
55% 57-47
54% 63-53
55% 48-39
54% 50-43
ATS
61% 62-40-2
58% 67-49
55% 48-39
54% 50-43
TTL
60% 62-42
63% 72-43-1
100% 87-0
100% 93-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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