HOUSTON
ROCKETSHOU
10-4 | Road
100
MILWAUKEE
BUCKSMIL
4-9 | Home
101
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKETS
100%
BUCKS
0%
ROCKETS
--
BUCKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
226.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.1
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.1 points (Milwaukee)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIL -2.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)
HOU By 1-7 points
22.9%
HOU By 8-14 points
12.0%
MIL By 1-7 points
26.9%
MIL By 8-14 points
18.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
112.11
HOUSTON
Milwaukee
114.2
MILWAUKEE
Simulated Score
Houston
108
HOUSTON
Milwaukee
116
MILWAUKEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Bucks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bucks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Bucks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -2.1
D
Sim
Bucks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 226.3
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 224.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 1, 2026
MIL @ HOU
113 - 119
Nov 9, 2025
HOU @ MIL
122 - 115
Feb 25, 2025
MIL @ HOU
97 - 100
Nov 18, 2024
HOU @ MIL
100 - 101
Jan 6, 2024
MIL @ HOU
108 - 112
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+5.6%
Milwaukee: 38.5%
vs
Houston: 32.9%
Rebounding (L5)
+24.0% more
Houston: 56.9
vs
Milwaukee: 43.2
Free Throw % (L5)
+10.1%
Houston: 74.7%
vs
Milwaukee: 64.7%
Turnovers (L5)
+8.1% more
Houston: 13.0
vs
Milwaukee: 12.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
112.1
100
MIL Score
114.2
101
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.5 / 32.9
39.4 / 28.1
Assists
26.0 / 27.9
21.0 / 19.0
Blocks
7.0 / 7.2
8.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
47.5 / 48.0
45.8 / 40.0
Free Throw %
64.7 / 74.7
63.2 / 84.6
Rebounding
43.2 / 56.9
43.0 / 53.0
Steals
8.7 / 9.1
8.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
12.0 / 13.0
16.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
Advantage
54-34-0
(61.4%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
MIL
32-50-0
(39.0%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
38-50-0
(43.2%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
MIL
Advantage
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9%
Total +/-: -0.3
MIL
39-43-0
O: 47.6% / U: 52.4%
Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
HOU
MIL
HOU
ML
64%
61-35
61%
69-44
60%
49-32
59%
51-35
ATS
68%
65-31
62%
70-43
60%
49-32
59%
51-35
TTL
55%
53-43
51%
58-55
100%
81-0
100%
86-0
Contextual Game News
Cooper Flagg and Mavericks Face Media at NBA China Games in Macao
Matt Barnes: Clippers Are Cursed, Urges Steve Ballmer to Rebrand
Kyrie Irving Set for Mavericks Return in China After 19-Month AC…
Phillies' 2027 Forecast: Four Farmhands Ready to Step Up
Tampa Bay Rays Expected to Exercise $13 Million Club Option on Y…