PHOENIX
SUNSPHX
9-4 | Road
117
MINNESOTA
TIMBERWOLVESMIN
7-6 | Home
120
AI Model Win Probability
SUNS
100%
TIMBERWOLVES
0%
SUNS
--
TIMBERWOLVES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
225.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.6
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.6 points (Minnesota)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIN -8.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)
PHX By 1-7 points
12.8%
PHX By 8-14 points
4.3%
MIN By 1-7 points
24.7%
MIN By 8-14 points
26.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Phoenix
108.34
PHOENIX
Minnesota
116.95
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
Phoenix
112
PHOENIX
Minnesota
108
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Timberwolves
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Suns
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Timberwolves (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -8.6
D
Sim
Suns (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 225.3
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 220.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 17, 2026
PHX @ MIN
104 - 116
Dec 8, 2025
PHX @ MIN
108 - 105
Nov 21, 2025
MIN @ PHX
113 - 114
Mar 28, 2025
PHX @ MIN
109 - 124
Mar 2, 2025
MIN @ PHX
116 - 98
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+32.2% more
Minnesota: 10.4
vs
Phoenix: 7.9
Turnovers (L5)
+18.3% more
Minnesota: 15.4
vs
Phoenix: 13.1
Free Throw % (L5)
+9.1%
Minnesota: 84.2%
vs
Phoenix: 75.1%
Field Goal % (L5)
+6.8%
Minnesota: 45.9%
vs
Phoenix: 39.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHX Score
108.3
117
MIN Score
117.0
120
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.3 / 32.3
43.6 / 45.2
Assists
23.3 / 22.2
27.0 / 29.0
Blocks
4.2 / 4.6
6.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
45.9 / 39.2
52.5 / 54.1
Free Throw %
84.2 / 75.1
73.1 / 73.3
Rebounding
40.7 / 45.1
32.0 / 41.0
Steals
10.4 / 7.9
8.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
15.4 / 13.1
14.0 / 21.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHX
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
MIN
Advantage
55-39-0
(58.5%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHX
Advantage
50-38-0
(56.8%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
MIN
42-52-0
(44.7%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: -1.6
MIN
43-51-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
PHX
MIN
PHX
ML
54%
63-53
57%
60-45
54%
50-43
51%
45-43
ATS
58%
67-49
58%
59-43-3
54%
50-43
51%
45-43
TTL
63%
72-43-1
59%
61-42-2
100%
93-0
100%
88-0
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