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EDMONTON

OILERSEDM

9-7-0  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sat, Nov 16 • 7:00 PM ET
Scotiabank Arena
View Odds Details →

TORONTO

MAPLE LEAFSTOR

10-6-0  |  Home

4
Goaltending
Ty Emberson
GOALTENDER

Ty Emberson

#49 | Defense
@
Anthony Stolarz
GOALTENDER

Anthony Stolarz

#41 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Ty Emberson None-None -- -- --
Anthony Stolarz None-None 2.97 0.900 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
-- GAA 2.97
-- Save % 0.900
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
OILERS
100%
📊
MAPLE LEAFS
0%
OILERS --
MAPLE LEAFS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Toronto)
OilersEDM (-3.5) 0 Maple LeafsTOR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Oilers Cover

39.9%

Maple Leafs Cover

60.1%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around TOR -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)

EDM By 1 goal

14.9%

EDM By 2-3 goals

13.5%

TOR By 1 goal

19.2%

TOR By 2-3 goals

24.3%

AI Model Projected Score
2.57
EDMONTON
3.08
TORONTO
Simulated Score
3
EDMONTON
2
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Maple Leafs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Oilers Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Maple Leafs (+0) Win
Proj Goals: -0.5
D
Sim Oilers (-0) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 5.7
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 3, 2026 TOR @ EDM 5 - 2
Dec 13, 2025 EDM @ TOR 6 - 3
Feb 1, 2025 TOR @ EDM 4 - 3
Nov 16, 2024 EDM @ TOR 3 - 4
Mar 23, 2024 EDM @ TOR 3 - 6
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +53.2% more
Toronto: 20.4 vs Edmonton: 13.3
Blocked Shots (L5) +27.0% more
Toronto: 15.3 vs Edmonton: 12.1
Power Play % (L5) +20.6%
Toronto: 39.1% vs Edmonton: 18.5%
Faceoff % (L5) +1.5%
Toronto: 51.2% vs Edmonton: 49.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
EDM Score 2.6 3
TOR Score 3.1 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 15.3 / 12.1 27.0 / 17.0
Faceoff % 51.2 / 49.6 44.2 / 55.8
Hits 20.4 / 13.3 18.0 / 15.0
Power Play % 39.1 / 18.5 0.0 / 50.0
Shots on Goal 29.2 / 34.4 22.0 / 30.0
Takeaways 4.8 / 5.8 4.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
94%MONEY6%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
18%TICKETS82%
37%MONEY63%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
98%TICKETS2%
99%MONEY1%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
EDM
TOR
EDM
ML
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
ATS
0% 0-4
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
TTL
100% 4-0
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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