Home / NFL Projections NFL / Vikings @ Titans MIN @ TEN

MINNESOTA

VIKINGSMIN

7-2  |  Road

23
FINAL
Sun, Nov 17 • 1:00 PM ET
Nissan Stadium
View Odds Details →

TENNESSEE

TITANSTEN

2-7  |  Home

13
Key Game
Jalen Redmond
KEY GAME

Jalen Redmond

#61 | Defensive Tackle
@
Julius Chestnut
KEY GAME

Julius Chestnut

#36 | Running Back
Player
Jalen Redmond None-None
Julius Chestnut None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
VIKINGS
100%
📊
TITANS
0%
VIKINGS --
TITANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
44.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.6
TENNESSEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 points (Tennessee)
VikingsMIN (-3.5) 0 TitansTEN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Vikings Cover

48.1%

Titans Cover

51.9%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around TEN -0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEN)

MIN By 1-6 points

16.2%

MIN By 7-13 points

14.9%

TEN By 1-6 points

16.6%

TEN By 7-13 points

15.9%

AI Model Projected Score
21.87
MINNESOTA
22.52
TENNESSEE
Simulated Score
21
MINNESOTA
28
TENNESSEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Titans Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Titans Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Titans (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -0.6
D
Sim Titans (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 44.4
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 49.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 22, 2025 MIN @ TEN 13 - 23
Nov 17, 2024 MIN @ TEN 23 - 13
Sep 27, 2020 TEN @ MIN 31 - 30
Sep 11, 2016 MIN @ TEN 25 - 16
Oct 7, 2012 TEN @ MIN 7 - 30
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +39.1% more
Minnesota: 2.2 vs Tennessee: 1.3
Net Passing Yards (L5) +21.0% more
Minnesota: 237.5 vs Tennessee: 187.6
First Downs (L5) +14.4% more
Minnesota: 23.6 vs Tennessee: 20.2
Total Yards (L5) +11.4% more
Minnesota: 367.2 vs Tennessee: 325.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIN Score 21.9 23
TEN Score 22.5 13
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.2 / 23.6 11.0 / 24.0
Net Passing Yards 187.6 / 237.5 261.0 / 236.0
Rushing Yards 137.6 / 129.7 33.0 / 82.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.4 / 0.36
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.46 / 0.54
Total Yards 325.2 / 367.2 294.0 / 318.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 2.2 1.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 5.3 / 5.5 5.3 / 4.7
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
92%TICKETS8%
97%MONEY3%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
84%TICKETS16%
88%MONEY12%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
71%MONEY29%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 8.8 ATS +/-: +7.0
TEN
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -7.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 8.8 ATS +/-: +7.0
TEN
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -7.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -9.0
TEN
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -5.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEN
MIN
TEN
MIN
ML
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
ATS
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
100% 4-0
TTL
25% 1-3
0% 0-4
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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