Home / NBA Projections NBA / Timberwolves @ Trail Blazers MIN @ POR

MINNESOTA

TIMBERWOLVESMIN

6-5  |  Road

98
FINAL
Wed, Nov 13 • 10:00 PM ET
Moda Center
View Odds Details →

PORTLAND

TRAIL BLAZERSPOR

4-8  |  Home

106
AI Model Win Probability
TIMBERWOLVES
0%
📊
TRAIL BLAZERS
100%
TIMBERWOLVES --
TRAIL BLAZERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
222.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.6 points (Minnesota)
TimberwolvesMIN (-3.5) 0 Trail BlazersPOR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Timberwolves Cover

56.4%

Trail Blazers Cover

43.6%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MIN -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)

MIN By 1-7 points

26.6%

MIN By 8-14 points

17.9%

POR By 1-7 points

23.5%

POR By 8-14 points

12.7%

AI Model Projected Score
111.79
MINNESOTA
110.17
PORTLAND
Simulated Score
120
MINNESOTA
115
PORTLAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Timberwolves Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Timberwolves Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Timberwolves (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.6
D
Sim Timberwolves (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 222.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 235.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 20, 2026 POR @ MIN 108 - 104
Feb 24, 2026 MIN @ POR 124 - 121
Feb 11, 2026 POR @ MIN 109 - 133
Oct 22, 2025 MIN @ POR 118 - 114
Feb 8, 2025 POR @ MIN 98 - 114
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +10.2% more
Minnesota: 24.9 vs Portland: 22.4
Free Throw % (L5) +5.1%
Minnesota: 85.2% vs Portland: 80.1%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.4%
Minnesota: 37.5% vs Portland: 34.1%
Field Goal % (L5) +3.3%
Minnesota: 48.0% vs Portland: 44.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIN Score 111.8 98
POR Score 110.2 106
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.1 / 37.5 36.0 / 17.9
Assists 22.4 / 24.9 17.0 / 16.0
Blocks 5.4 / 5.0 10.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 44.7 / 48.0 45.8 / 39.4
Free Throw % 80.1 / 85.2 91.3 / 77.3
Rebounding 40.9 / 40.3 47.0 / 41.0
Steals 10.8 / 10.6 10.0 / 12.0
Turnovers 18.4 / 19.5 20.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
89%TICKETS11%
77%MONEY23%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
56%MONEY44%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
94%TICKETS6%
93%MONEY7%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN Advantage
55-39-0 (58.5%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
POR
44-44-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN
42-52-0 (44.7%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
POR Advantage
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
43-51-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3% Total +/-: +0.8
POR
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
POR
MIN
POR
MIN
ML
53% 56-49
54% 63-53
55% 49-40
54% 50-43
ATS
62% 65-39-1
58% 67-49
55% 49-40
54% 50-43
TTL
56% 58-46-1
63% 72-43-1
100% 89-0
100% 93-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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