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TORONTO

MAPLE LEAFSTOR

9-6-0  |  Road

4
FINAL
Wed, Nov 13 • 7:30 PM ET
Capital One Arena
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

CAPITALSWSH

10-4-0  |  Home

3
Goaltending
Brandon Duhaime
GOALTENDER

Brandon Duhaime

#24 | Right Wing
@
Logan Thompson
GOALTENDER

Logan Thompson

#48 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Brandon Duhaime None-None -- -- --
Logan Thompson None-None 3.74 0.882 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
-- GAA 3.74
-- Save % 0.882
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
MAPLE LEAFS
0%
📊
CAPITALS
100%
MAPLE LEAFS --
CAPITALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.2
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 points (Toronto)
Maple LeafsTOR (-3.5) 0 CapitalsWSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Maple Leafs Cover

72.6%

Capitals Cover

27.4%

-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around TOR -1.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)

TOR By 1 goal

19.6%

TOR By 2-3 goals

31.5%

WSH By 1 goal

10.9%

WSH By 2-3 goals

7.9%

AI Model Projected Score
4.52
TORONTO
3.32
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
4
TORONTO
3
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Maple Leafs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Maple Leafs Win
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Maple Leafs (-0) Win
Proj Goals: -1.2
D
Sim Maple Leafs (-0) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.8
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 8, 2026 WSH @ TOR 4 - 0
Dec 18, 2025 TOR @ WSH 0 - 4
Nov 28, 2025 TOR @ WSH 2 - 4
Dec 28, 2024 WSH @ TOR 5 - 2
Dec 6, 2024 WSH @ TOR 3 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5) +46.9% more
Toronto: 4.6 vs Washington: 2.5
Hits (L5) +11.4% more
Toronto: 24.1 vs Washington: 21.4
Faceoff % (L5) +5.9%
Toronto: 53.6% vs Washington: 47.7%
Shots on Goal (L5) +11.6% more
Washington: 30.0 vs Toronto: 26.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TOR Score 4.5 4
WSH Score 3.3 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 18.2 / 17.0 15.0 / 12.0
Faceoff % 47.7 / 53.6 53.7 / 46.3
Hits 21.4 / 24.1 21.0 / 13.0
Power Play % 36.9 / 33.6 0.0 / 50.0
Shots on Goal 30.0 / 26.9 27.0 / 34.0
Takeaways 2.5 / 4.6 3.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
23%TICKETS77%
13%MONEY87%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
45%MONEY55%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
90%TICKETS10%
94%MONEY6%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
TOR
WSH
TOR
ML
100% 3-0
50% 2-2
67% 2-1
50% 2-2
ATS
100% 3-0
0% 0-4
67% 2-1
75% 3-1
TTL
33% 1-2
100% 4-0
33% 1-2
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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