Home / NBA Projections NBA / Timberwolves @ Trail Blazers MIN @ POR

MINNESOTA

TIMBERWOLVESMIN

6-4  |  Road

108
FINAL
Tue, Nov 12 • 10:00 PM ET
Moda Center
View Odds Details →

PORTLAND

TRAIL BLAZERSPOR

3-8  |  Home

122
AI Model Win Probability
TIMBERWOLVES
0%
📊
TRAIL BLAZERS
100%
TIMBERWOLVES --
TRAIL BLAZERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
222.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Minnesota)
TimberwolvesMIN (-3.5) 0 Trail BlazersPOR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Timberwolves Cover

72.7%

Trail Blazers Cover

27.3%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MIN -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)

MIN By 1-7 points

26.8%

MIN By 8-14 points

24.3%

POR By 1-7 points

16.9%

POR By 8-14 points

6.8%

AI Model Projected Score
114.1
MINNESOTA
108.05
PORTLAND
Simulated Score
113
MINNESOTA
110
PORTLAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Timberwolves Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Timberwolves Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Timberwolves (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim Timberwolves (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 222.1
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 20, 2026 POR @ MIN 108 - 104
Feb 24, 2026 MIN @ POR 124 - 121
Feb 11, 2026 POR @ MIN 109 - 133
Oct 22, 2025 MIN @ POR 118 - 114
Feb 8, 2025 POR @ MIN 98 - 114
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +29.7% more
Minnesota: 26.3 vs Portland: 18.5
Blocks (L5) +16.1% more
Minnesota: 5.5 vs Portland: 4.6
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +14.7%
Minnesota: 37.8% vs Portland: 23.0%
Free Throw % (L5) +7.0%
Minnesota: 82.1% vs Portland: 75.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIN Score 114.1 108
POR Score 108.1 122
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 23.0 / 37.8 56.3 / 37.1
Assists 18.5 / 26.3 30.0 / 22.0
Blocks 4.6 / 5.5 7.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 41.4 / 46.6 51.2 / 50.7
Free Throw % 75.1 / 82.1 90.0 / 91.3
Rebounding 41.8 / 44.5 39.0 / 32.0
Steals 9.2 / 9.4 14.0 / 13.0
Turnovers 17.7 / 17.7 20.0 / 23.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
93%TICKETS7%
90%MONEY10%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
26%TICKETS74%
28%MONEY72%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
88%TICKETS12%
88%MONEY12%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN Advantage
55-39-0 (58.5%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
POR
44-44-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN
42-52-0 (44.7%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
POR Advantage
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
43-51-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3% Total +/-: +0.8
POR
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
POR
MIN
POR
MIN
ML
53% 56-49
54% 63-53
55% 49-40
54% 50-43
ATS
62% 65-39-1
58% 67-49
55% 49-40
54% 50-43
TTL
56% 58-46-1
63% 72-43-1
100% 89-0
100% 93-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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