OTTAWA
SENATORSOTT
7-7-0 | Road
3
TORONTO
MAPLE LEAFSTOR
9-5-0 | Home
0
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Linus Ullmark
#35 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Anthony Stolarz
#41 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Linus Ullmark | None-None | 0.00 | 1.000 | 1 |
| Anthony Stolarz | None-None | 3.19 | 0.927 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
0.00 Ldr
GAA
3.19
1.000 Ldr
Save %
0.927
1 Ldr
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
SENATORS
0%
MAPLE LEAFS
100%
SENATORS
--
MAPLE LEAFS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
OTTAWA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (Ottawa)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around OTT -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OTT)
OTT By 1 goal
18.1%
OTT By 2-3 goals
20.4%
TOR By 1 goal
16.7%
TOR By 2-3 goals
17.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Ottawa
3.7
OTTAWA
Toronto
3.54
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Ottawa
3
OTTAWA
Toronto
5
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Senators
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Maple Leafs
Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Senators (-0)
Win
Proj Goals: -0.2
D
Sim
Maple Leafs (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.2
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 3, 2026
OTT @ TOR
3 - 2
Apr 15, 2026
TOR @ OTT
1 - 3
Mar 21, 2026
TOR @ OTT
2 - 5
Feb 28, 2026
OTT @ TOR
5 - 2
Dec 27, 2025
OTT @ TOR
5 - 7
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5)
+36.9% more
Ottawa: 6.2
vs
Toronto: 3.9
Hits (L5)
+25.6% more
Ottawa: 31.8
vs
Toronto: 23.7
Shots on Goal (L5)
+18.5% more
Ottawa: 32.9
vs
Toronto: 26.8
Blocked Shots (L5)
+35.1% more
Toronto: 18.5
vs
Ottawa: 13.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
OTT Score
3.7
3
TOR Score
3.5
0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
18.5 / 13.7
14.0 / 16.0
Faceoff %
53.6 / 52.3
53.7 / 46.3
Hits
23.7 / 31.8
25.0 / 25.0
Power Play %
5046.0 / 2459.0
0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
26.8 / 32.9
27.0 / 41.0
Takeaways
3.9 / 6.2
6.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
OTT
TOR
OTT
ML
50%
2-2
0%
0-3
50%
2-2
67%
2-1
ATS
0%
0-4
0%
0-3
75%
3-1
67%
2-1
TTL
100%
4-0
67%
2-1
75%
3-1
67%
2-1
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