BOSTON
CELTICSBOS
8-2 | Road
113
MILWAUKEE
BUCKSMIL
2-7 | Home
107
AI Model Win Probability
CELTICS
100%
BUCKS
0%
CELTICS
--
BUCKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
232.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Milwaukee)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIL -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)
BOS By 1-7 points
25.2%
BOS By 8-14 points
15.1%
MIL By 1-7 points
25.5%
MIL By 8-14 points
15.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Boston
116.32
BOSTON
Milwaukee
116.44
MILWAUKEE
Simulated Score
Boston
115
BOSTON
Milwaukee
117
MILWAUKEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Bucks
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bucks
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Bucks (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -0.1
D
Sim
Bucks (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 232.8
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 232.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 3, 2026
BOS @ MIL
133 - 101
Mar 2, 2026
BOS @ MIL
108 - 81
Feb 1, 2026
MIL @ BOS
79 - 107
Dec 11, 2025
BOS @ MIL
101 - 116
Dec 6, 2024
MIL @ BOS
105 - 111
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+3.1%
Milwaukee: 34.6%
vs
Boston: 31.6%
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.4%
Milwaukee: 46.7%
vs
Boston: 44.3%
Blocks (L5)
+26.7% more
Boston: 6.1
vs
Milwaukee: 4.5
Steals (L5)
+25.7% more
Boston: 8.0
vs
Milwaukee: 5.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BOS Score
116.3
113
MIL Score
116.4
107
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.6 / 31.6
40.6 / 38.0
Assists
20.8 / 23.3
21.0 / 27.0
Blocks
4.5 / 6.1
8.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
46.7 / 44.3
48.1 / 40.7
Free Throw %
69.8 / 81.3
76.2 / 88.9
Rebounding
42.8 / 43.7
41.0 / 42.0
Steals
5.9 / 8.0
9.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
12.8 / 12.7
13.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS
Advantage
59-30-0
(66.3%)
Margin: 7.3
ATS +/-: +2.2
MIL
32-50-0
(39.0%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
Advantage
51-38-0
(57.3%)
Margin: 7.3
ATS +/-: +2.2
MIL
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
32-57-0
O: 36.0% / U: 64.0%
Total +/-: -3.2
MIL
39-43-0
O: 47.6% / U: 52.4%
Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
BOS
MIL
BOS
ML
64%
61-35
57%
61-46
60%
49-32
53%
47-41
ATS
68%
65-31
59%
61-43-3
60%
49-32
53%
47-41
TTL
55%
53-43
56%
60-47
100%
81-0
100%
88-0
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