MIAMI
HEATMIA
3-5 | Road
95
MINNESOTA
TIMBERWOLVESMIN
6-3 | Home
94
AI Model Win Probability
HEAT
100%
TIMBERWOLVES
0%
HEAT
--
TIMBERWOLVES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
232.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.8
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.8 points (Minnesota)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIN -7.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)
MIA By 1-7 points
13.9%
MIA By 8-14 points
5.0%
MIN By 1-7 points
25.5%
MIN By 8-14 points
26.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
112.54
MIAMI
Minnesota
120.39
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
Miami
112
MIAMI
Minnesota
116
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Timberwolves
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Timberwolves
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Timberwolves (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.8
D
Sim
Timberwolves (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 232.9
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 228.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 6, 2026
MIA @ MIN
94 - 122
Jan 3, 2026
MIN @ MIA
125 - 115
Mar 7, 2025
MIN @ MIA
106 - 104
Nov 10, 2024
MIA @ MIN
95 - 94
Dec 18, 2023
MIN @ MIA
112 - 108
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+90.9% more
Minnesota: 5.7
vs
Miami: 3.0
Turnovers (L5)
+34.6% more
Minnesota: 16.6
vs
Miami: 12.3
Field Goal % (L5)
+4.6%
Minnesota: 50.0%
vs
Miami: 45.4%
Free Throw % (L5)
+2.5%
Minnesota: 80.8%
vs
Miami: 78.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
112.5
95
MIN Score
120.4
94
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
42.2 / 41.5
28.9 / 35.5
Assists
28.5 / 27.8
22.0 / 18.0
Blocks
5.7 / 3.0
5.0 / 9.0
Field Goal %
50.0 / 45.4
39.8 / 44.2
Free Throw %
80.8 / 78.3
84.6 / 72.7
Rebounding
43.2 / 40.5
47.0 / 43.0
Steals
7.6 / 10.2
13.0 / 14.0
Turnovers
16.6 / 12.3
20.0 / 23.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
MIN
Advantage
55-39-0
(58.5%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
Advantage
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
MIN
42-52-0
(44.7%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
MIN
43-51-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
MIA
MIN
MIA
ML
54%
63-53
48%
46-50
54%
50-43
59%
48-34
ATS
58%
67-49
51%
49-47
54%
50-43
59%
48-34
TTL
63%
72-43-1
59%
57-39
100%
93-0
100%
82-0
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