Home / NBA Projections NBA / Trail Blazers @ Timberwolves POR @ MIN

PORTLAND

TRAIL BLAZERSPOR

3-6  |  Road

102
FINAL
Fri, Nov 8 • 9:00 PM ET
Target Center
View Odds Details →

MINNESOTA

TIMBERWOLVESMIN

5-3  |  Home

127
AI Model Win Probability
TRAIL BLAZERS
100%
📊
TIMBERWOLVES
0%
TRAIL BLAZERS --
TIMBERWOLVES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
225.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.7
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.7 points (Minnesota)
Trail BlazersPOR (-3.5) 0 TimberwolvesMIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Trail Blazers Cover

22.1%

Timberwolves Cover

77.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIN -7.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)

POR By 1-7 points

14.2%

POR By 8-14 points

5.1%

MIN By 1-7 points

25.6%

MIN By 8-14 points

26.0%

AI Model Projected Score
109.05
PORTLAND
116.74
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
114
PORTLAND
119
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Timberwolves Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Timberwolves Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Timberwolves (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.7
D
Sim Timberwolves (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 225.8
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 233.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 20, 2026 POR @ MIN 108 - 104
Feb 24, 2026 MIN @ POR 124 - 121
Feb 11, 2026 POR @ MIN 109 - 133
Oct 22, 2025 MIN @ POR 118 - 114
Feb 8, 2025 POR @ MIN 98 - 114
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +23.4% more
Minnesota: 26.8 vs Portland: 21.7
Turnovers (L5) +12.8% more
Minnesota: 14.9 vs Portland: 13.2
Free Throw % (L5) +11.2%
Minnesota: 81.9% vs Portland: 70.8%
Blocks (L5) +10.1% more
Minnesota: 5.0 vs Portland: 4.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
POR Score 109.1 102
MIN Score 116.7 127
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 41.3 / 32.7 44.0 / 24.0
Assists 26.8 / 21.7 32.0 / 13.0
Blocks 5.0 / 4.5 7.0 / 7.0
Field Goal % 50.8 / 46.2 48.5 / 42.9
Free Throw % 81.9 / 70.8 78.6 / 75.0
Rebounding 40.4 / 43.3 49.0 / 37.0
Steals 6.9 / 8.5 9.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 14.9 / 13.2 20.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
8%MONEY92%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
28%TICKETS72%
30%MONEY70%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
88%TICKETS12%
87%MONEY13%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
POR
44-44-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
MIN Advantage
55-39-0 (58.5%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
POR Advantage
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
MIN
42-52-0 (44.7%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
POR
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.0
MIN
43-51-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
POR
MIN
POR
ML
54% 63-53
53% 56-49
54% 50-43
55% 49-40
ATS
58% 67-49
62% 65-39-1
54% 50-43
55% 49-40
TTL
63% 72-43-1
56% 58-46-1
100% 93-0
100% 89-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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