DETROIT
RED WINGSDET
6-5-0 | Road
1
TORONTO
MAPLE LEAFSTOR
7-5-0 | Home
3
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Moritz Seider
#53 | Defense@
GOALTENDER
Anthony Stolarz
#41 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moritz Seider | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
| Anthony Stolarz | None-None | 1.00 | 0.955 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
--
GAA
1.00
--
Save %
0.955
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
RED WINGS
100%
MAPLE LEAFS
0%
RED WINGS
--
MAPLE LEAFS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.2
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around TOR -1.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
DET By 1 goal
10.7%
DET By 2-3 goals
7.6%
TOR By 1 goal
19.6%
TOR By 2-3 goals
31.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Detroit
2.66
DETROIT
Toronto
3.9
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Detroit
3
DETROIT
Toronto
5
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Maple Leafs
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Maple Leafs
Win
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Maple Leafs (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.2
D
Sim
Maple Leafs (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 6.6
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 21, 2026
DET @ TOR
2 - 1
Dec 28, 2025
TOR @ DET
2 - 3
Oct 13, 2025
DET @ TOR
3 - 2
Oct 11, 2025
TOR @ DET
3 - 6
Oct 4, 2025
TOR @ DET
5 - 6
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+57.6% more
Toronto: 23.8
vs
Detroit: 15.1
Shots on Goal (L5)
+26.9% more
Toronto: 30.0
vs
Detroit: 23.6
Blocked Shots (L5)
+8.2% more
Toronto: 15.9
vs
Detroit: 14.7
Faceoff % (L5)
+4.9%
Toronto: 56.6%
vs
Detroit: 51.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DET Score
2.7
1
TOR Score
3.9
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
15.9 / 14.7
20.0 / 18.0
Faceoff %
56.6 / 51.7
43.1 / 56.9
Hits
23.8 / 15.1
23.0 / 14.0
Power Play %
26.0 / 24.3
100.0 / 33.3
Shots on Goal
30.0 / 23.6
20.0 / 22.0
Takeaways
4.9 / 5.7
2.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
DET
TOR
DET
ML
50%
2-2
67%
2-1
50%
2-2
33%
1-2
ATS
0%
0-4
33%
1-2
75%
3-1
67%
2-1
TTL
100%
4-0
0%
0-3
75%
3-1
33%
1-2
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