TORONTO
MAPLE LEAFSTOR
6-5-0 | Road
1
MINNESOTA
WILDMIN
7-1-0 | Home
2
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Anthony Stolarz
#41 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Filip Gustavsson
#32 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Stolarz | None-None | 1.93 | 0.939 | -- |
| Filip Gustavsson | None-None | 0.97 | 0.964 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
1.93
GAA
Ldr 0.97
0.939
Save %
Ldr 0.964
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
MAPLE LEAFS
0%
WILD
100%
MAPLE LEAFS
--
WILD
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around TOR -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
TOR By 1 goal
19.2%
TOR By 2-3 goals
24.3%
MIN By 1 goal
14.9%
MIN By 2-3 goals
13.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
4.15
TORONTO
Minnesota
3.64
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
Toronto
3
TORONTO
Minnesota
4
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Maple Leafs
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Wild
Win
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Maple Leafs (-0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -0.5
D
Sim
Wild (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.8
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 15, 2026
TOR @ MIN
4 - 2
Jan 19, 2026
MIN @ TOR
6 - 3
Jan 29, 2025
MIN @ TOR
3 - 1
Nov 3, 2024
TOR @ MIN
1 - 2
Nov 19, 2023
TOR @ MIN
4 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5)
+29.8% more
Toronto: 6.9
vs
Minnesota: 4.9
Hits (L5)
+21.2% more
Toronto: 24.3
vs
Minnesota: 19.1
Shots on Goal (L5)
+17.8% more
Toronto: 33.2
vs
Minnesota: 27.3
Faceoff % (L5)
+13.4%
Toronto: 60.7%
vs
Minnesota: 47.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
4.2
1
MIN Score
3.6
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
16.9 / 14.8
8.0 / 24.0
Faceoff %
47.3 / 60.7
48.9 / 51.1
Hits
19.1 / 24.3
22.0 / 30.0
Power Play %
13.8 / 1.4
0.0 / 50.0
Shots on Goal
27.3 / 33.2
33.0 / 28.0
Takeaways
4.9 / 6.9
7.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
TOR
MIN
TOR
ML
67%
2-1
50%
2-2
33%
1-2
50%
2-2
ATS
33%
1-2
0%
0-4
33%
1-2
75%
3-1
TTL
100%
3-0
100%
4-0
67%
2-1
75%
3-1
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