DENVER
NUGGETSDEN
2-2 | Road
116
MINNESOTA
TIMBERWOLVESMIN
2-2 | Home
119
AI Model Win Probability
NUGGETS
100%
TIMBERWOLVES
0%
NUGGETS
--
TIMBERWOLVES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
208.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.3
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.3 points (Minnesota)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIN -2.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)
DEN By 1-7 points
22.7%
DEN By 8-14 points
11.8%
MIN By 1-7 points
27.0%
MIN By 8-14 points
19.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Denver
103.04
DENVER
Minnesota
105.31
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
Denver
112
DENVER
Minnesota
108
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Timberwolves
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Nuggets
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Timberwolves (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -2.3
D
Sim
Nuggets (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 208.4
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 220.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 30, 2026
DEN @ MIN
98 - 110
Apr 27, 2026
MIN @ DEN
113 - 125
Apr 25, 2026
DEN @ MIN
96 - 112
Apr 23, 2026
DEN @ MIN
96 - 113
Apr 20, 2026
MIN @ DEN
119 - 114
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+40.0% more
Minnesota: 16.8
vs
Denver: 12.0
Blocks (L5)
+25.9% more
Denver: 4.8
vs
Minnesota: 3.6
Steals (L5)
+9.1% more
Denver: 6.7
vs
Minnesota: 6.1
Free Throw % (L5)
+4.8%
Denver: 78.8%
vs
Minnesota: 74.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DEN Score
103.0
116
MIN Score
105.3
119
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
40.8 / 41.4
42.9 / 34.4
Assists
27.9 / 28.1
34.0 / 30.0
Blocks
3.6 / 4.8
9.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
47.6 / 46.9
51.8 / 44.6
Free Throw %
74.0 / 78.8
83.3 / 79.3
Rebounding
43.2 / 45.8
38.0 / 46.0
Steals
6.1 / 6.7
8.0 / 11.0
Turnovers
16.8 / 12.0
17.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN
Advantage
56-32-0
(63.6%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
MIN
55-39-0
(58.5%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
MIN
42-52-0
(44.7%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8%
Total +/-: +3.4
MIN
43-51-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
DEN
MIN
DEN
ML
54%
63-53
54%
57-48
54%
50-43
55%
47-39
ATS
58%
67-49
63%
65-38-2
54%
50-43
55%
47-39
TTL
63%
72-43-1
54%
56-48-1
100%
93-0
100%
86-0
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