MILWAUKEE
BUCKSMIL
1-3 | Road
99
MEMPHIS
GRIZZLIESMEM
2-3 | Home
122
AI Model Win Probability
BUCKS
100%
GRIZZLIES
0%
BUCKS
--
GRIZZLIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
205.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.2
MEMPHIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.2 points (Memphis)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MEM -4.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MEM)
MIL By 1-7 points
19.8%
MIL By 8-14 points
9.0%
MEM By 1-7 points
27.4%
MEM By 8-14 points
22.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Milwaukee
100.85
MILWAUKEE
Memphis
105.08
MEMPHIS
Simulated Score
Milwaukee
113
MILWAUKEE
Memphis
108
MEMPHIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Grizzlies
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bucks
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Grizzlies (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.2
D
Sim
Bucks (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 205.9
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 221.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 5, 2026
MEM @ MIL
115 - 131
Dec 26, 2025
MIL @ MEM
104 - 125
Feb 2, 2025
MEM @ MIL
132 - 119
Oct 31, 2024
MIL @ MEM
99 - 122
Apr 3, 2024
MEM @ MIL
111 - 101
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+41.5% more
Memphis: 30.8
vs
Milwaukee: 21.8
Steals (L5)
+25.6% more
Memphis: 8.2
vs
Milwaukee: 6.5
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.0%
Memphis: 33.6%
vs
Milwaukee: 31.5%
Free Throw % (L5)
+7.7%
Milwaukee: 77.5%
vs
Memphis: 69.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIL Score
100.9
99
MEM Score
105.1
122
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.6 / 31.5
28.6 / 21.4
Assists
30.8 / 21.8
26.0 / 20.0
Blocks
5.5 / 5.1
3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
47.0 / 45.8
52.4 / 42.7
Free Throw %
69.8 / 77.5
90.3 / 42.1
Rebounding
45.5 / 43.8
56.0 / 38.0
Steals
8.2 / 6.5
6.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
17.6 / 16.4
17.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIL
Advantage
32-50-0
(39.0%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
MEM
25-57-0
(30.5%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIL
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
MEM
Advantage
37-45-0
(45.1%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
MIL
39-43-0
O: 47.6% / U: 52.4%
Total +/-: +1.4
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6%
Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MEM
MIL
MEM
MIL
ML
57%
59-44
64%
61-35
50%
41-41
60%
49-32
ATS
63%
65-38
68%
65-31
50%
41-41
60%
49-32
TTL
70%
71-31-1
55%
53-43
100%
82-0
100%
81-0
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