HOUSTON
ROCKETSHOU
2-2 | Road
108
DALLAS
MAVERICKSDAL
3-1 | Home
102
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKETS
100%
MAVERICKS
0%
ROCKETS
--
MAVERICKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
209.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.2
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.2 points (Dallas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DAL -7.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)
HOU By 1-7 points
15.0%
HOU By 8-14 points
5.6%
DAL By 1-7 points
26.1%
DAL By 8-14 points
25.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
100.97
HOUSTON
Dallas
108.16
DALLAS
Simulated Score
Houston
113
HOUSTON
Dallas
118
DALLAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Mavericks
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mavericks
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Mavericks (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.2
D
Sim
Mavericks (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 209.1
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 231.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 31, 2026
DAL @ HOU
107 - 111
Jan 3, 2026
HOU @ DAL
104 - 110
Dec 6, 2025
HOU @ DAL
109 - 122
Nov 3, 2025
DAL @ HOU
102 - 110
Mar 14, 2025
DAL @ HOU
96 - 133
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+64.1% more
Dallas: 5.5
vs
Houston: 3.4
Steals (L5)
+17.4% more
Dallas: 9.4
vs
Houston: 8.0
Assists (L5)
+14.6% more
Dallas: 24.5
vs
Houston: 21.4
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.8%
Dallas: 45.3%
vs
Houston: 42.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
101.0
108
DAL Score
108.2
102
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.4 / 36.0
33.3 / 23.5
Assists
24.5 / 21.4
21.0 / 21.0
Blocks
5.5 / 3.4
7.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
45.3 / 42.5
45.9 / 41.2
Free Throw %
77.3 / 78.4
70.0 / 74.1
Rebounding
45.0 / 46.2
37.0 / 50.0
Steals
9.4 / 8.0
6.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
12.3 / 13.3
10.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
Advantage
54-34-0
(61.4%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
DAL
26-56-0
(31.7%)
Margin: -5.5
ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
38-50-0
(43.2%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
DAL
Advantage
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -5.5
ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9%
Total +/-: -0.3
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
HOU
DAL
HOU
ML
62%
63-39
61%
69-44
54%
44-37
59%
51-35
ATS
67%
68-34
62%
70-43
54%
44-37
59%
51-35
TTL
59%
60-41-1
51%
58-55
100%
81-0
100%
86-0
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