Home / NBA Projections NBA / Mavericks @ Timberwolves DAL @ MIN

DALLAS

MAVERICKSDAL

2-1  |  Road

120
FINAL
Tue, Oct 29 • 7:30 PM ET
Target Center
View Odds Details →

MINNESOTA

TIMBERWOLVESMIN

2-1  |  Home

114
AI Model Win Probability
MAVERICKS
0%
📊
TIMBERWOLVES
100%
MAVERICKS --
TIMBERWOLVES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
211.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.3
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.3 points (Dallas)
MavericksDAL (-3.5) 0 TimberwolvesMIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mavericks Cover

59.1%

Timberwolves Cover

40.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DAL -2.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)

DAL By 1-7 points

27.0%

DAL By 8-14 points

19.0%

MIN By 1-7 points

22.6%

MIN By 8-14 points

11.7%

AI Model Projected Score
106.73
DALLAS
104.44
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
116
DALLAS
112
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mavericks Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mavericks Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mavericks (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -2.3
D
Sim Mavericks (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 211.2
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 228.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 30, 2026 MIN @ DAL 124 - 94
Feb 20, 2026 DAL @ MIN 111 - 122
Jan 28, 2026 MIN @ DAL 118 - 105
Nov 17, 2025 DAL @ MIN 96 - 120
Jan 22, 2025 MIN @ DAL 115 - 114
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +40.4% more
Dallas: 7.3 vs Minnesota: 4.4
Steals (L5) +17.7% more
Dallas: 8.1 vs Minnesota: 6.7
Turnovers (L5) +12.4% more
Minnesota: 15.1 vs Dallas: 13.5
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +4.2%
Minnesota: 36.8% vs Dallas: 32.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DAL Score 106.7 120
MIN Score 104.4 114
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.8 / 32.6 48.7 / 41.0
Assists 25.4 / 24.3 33.0 / 25.0
Blocks 4.4 / 7.3 2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 46.0 / 43.8 50.6 / 48.4
Free Throw % 78.3 / 77.0 65.4 / 77.8
Rebounding 43.8 / 47.5 42.0 / 40.0
Steals 6.7 / 8.1 5.0 / 12.0
Turnovers 15.1 / 13.5 20.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
21%TICKETS79%
35%MONEY65%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
74%MONEY26%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
90%TICKETS10%
91%MONEY9%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAL
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
MIN Advantage
55-39-0 (58.5%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAL
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
MIN Advantage
42-52-0 (44.7%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9% Total +/-: +1.0
MIN
43-51-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
DAL
MIN
DAL
ML
54% 63-53
62% 63-39
54% 50-43
54% 44-37
ATS
58% 67-49
67% 68-34
54% 50-43
54% 44-37
TTL
63% 72-43-1
59% 60-41-1
100% 93-0
100% 81-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Cooper Flagg and Mavericks Face Media at NBA China Games in Macao
dallasnews 1 hour, 8 minutes ago
Kyrie Irving Set for Mavericks Return in China After 19-Month AC…
yahoo 7 hours ago
Tampa Bay Rays Expected to Exercise $13 Million Club Option on Y…
si 13 hours, 31 minutes ago
Adam Fox Quietly Dominating as Rangers Surge Early in 2026-27
si 13 hours, 31 minutes ago
Cal Bears' Injury Report: Eight Players Questionable for Virgini…
headtopics 19 hours, 31 minutes ago