MILWAUKEE
BUCKSMIL
1-2 | Road
108
BOSTON
CELTICSBOS
3-0 | Home
119
AI Model Win Probability
BUCKS
100%
CELTICS
0%
BUCKS
--
CELTICS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
208.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.4
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.4 points (Boston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BOS -2.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)
MIL By 1-7 points
22.5%
MIL By 8-14 points
11.6%
BOS By 1-7 points
27.0%
BOS By 8-14 points
19.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Milwaukee
103.04
MILWAUKEE
Boston
105.41
BOSTON
Simulated Score
Milwaukee
112
MILWAUKEE
Boston
116
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Celtics
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Celtics
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Celtics (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -2.4
D
Sim
Celtics (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 208.5
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 228.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 3, 2026
BOS @ MIL
133 - 101
Mar 2, 2026
BOS @ MIL
108 - 81
Feb 1, 2026
MIL @ BOS
79 - 107
Dec 11, 2025
BOS @ MIL
101 - 116
Dec 6, 2024
MIL @ BOS
105 - 111
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+34.9% more
Boston: 8.4
vs
Milwaukee: 6.2
Free Throw % (L5)
+9.1%
Boston: 83.5%
vs
Milwaukee: 74.4%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+7.0%
Boston: 41.4%
vs
Milwaukee: 34.4%
Turnovers (L5)
+36.3% more
Milwaukee: 16.1
vs
Boston: 10.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIL Score
103.0
108
BOS Score
105.4
119
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
41.4 / 34.4
38.3 / 25.8
Assists
23.8 / 23.7
24.0 / 18.0
Blocks
4.7 / 4.6
5.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
45.0 / 46.2
49.4 / 45.1
Free Throw %
83.5 / 74.4
78.9 / 83.9
Rebounding
42.2 / 44.2
38.0 / 43.0
Steals
8.4 / 6.2
5.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
10.3 / 16.1
14.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIL
32-50-0
(39.0%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
BOS
Advantage
59-30-0
(66.3%)
Margin: 7.3
ATS +/-: +2.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIL
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
BOS
Advantage
51-38-0
(57.3%)
Margin: 7.3
ATS +/-: +2.2
⚖️ Over/Under
MIL
39-43-0
O: 47.6% / U: 52.4%
Total +/-: +1.4
BOS
32-57-0
O: 36.0% / U: 64.0%
Total +/-: -3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
MIL
BOS
MIL
ML
57%
61-46
64%
61-35
53%
47-41
60%
49-32
ATS
59%
61-43-3
68%
65-31
53%
47-41
60%
49-32
TTL
56%
60-47
55%
53-43
100%
88-0
100%
81-0
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