TORONTO
MAPLE LEAFSTOR
4-4-0 | Road
6
WINNIPEG
JETSWPG
8-0-0 | Home
4
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Anthony Stolarz
#41 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Connor Hellebuyck
#37 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Stolarz | None-None | 4.00 | 0.826 | -- |
| Connor Hellebuyck | None-None | 5.05 | 0.857 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
4.00 Ldr
GAA
5.05
0.826
Save %
Ldr 0.857
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
MAPLE LEAFS
0%
JETS
100%
MAPLE LEAFS
--
JETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around TOR -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
TOR By 1 goal
19.7%
TOR By 2-3 goals
29.2%
WPG By 1 goal
12.3%
WPG By 2-3 goals
9.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
4.24
TORONTO
Winnipeg
3.28
WINNIPEG
Simulated Score
Toronto
3
TORONTO
Winnipeg
2
WINNIPEG
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Maple Leafs
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Maple Leafs
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Maple Leafs (-0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim
Maple Leafs (-0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.5
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 17, 2026
TOR @ WPG
4 - 3
Jan 1, 2026
WPG @ TOR
5 - 6
Dec 23, 2024
WPG @ TOR
5 - 2
Oct 28, 2024
TOR @ WPG
6 - 4
Jan 27, 2024
TOR @ WPG
4 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5)
+12.7% more
Toronto: 6.0
vs
Winnipeg: 5.3
Hits (L5)
+10.6% more
Toronto: 23.6
vs
Winnipeg: 21.1
Faceoff % (L5)
+5.6%
Toronto: 56.5%
vs
Winnipeg: 50.9%
Power Play % (L5)
+27.8%
Winnipeg: 32.5%
vs
Toronto: 4.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
4.2
6
WPG Score
3.3
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
16.5 / 15.0
11.0 / 18.0
Faceoff %
50.9 / 56.5
33.3 / 66.7
Hits
21.1 / 23.6
21.0 / 25.0
Power Play %
32.5 / 4.7
50.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
33.4 / 30.0
23.0 / 36.0
Takeaways
5.3 / 6.0
9.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WPG
TOR
WPG
TOR
ML
50%
2-2
50%
2-2
25%
1-3
50%
2-2
ATS
25%
1-3
0%
0-4
100%
4-0
75%
3-1
TTL
50%
2-2
100%
4-0
50%
2-2
75%
3-1
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