ST. LOUIS
BLUESSTL
4-3-0 | Road
5
TORONTO
MAPLE LEAFSTOR
4-3-0 | Home
1
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Jordan Binnington
#50 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Chris Tanev
#8 | Defense| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Binnington | None-None | 1.00 | 0.976 | -- |
| Chris Tanev | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
1.00
GAA
--
0.976
Save %
--
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
BLUES
100%
MAPLE LEAFS
0%
BLUES
--
MAPLE LEAFS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
4.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.9
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.9 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around TOR -1.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
STL By 1 goal
7.2%
STL By 2-3 goals
4.2%
TOR By 1 goal
18.0%
TOR By 2-3 goals
36.6%
AI Model Projected Score
St. Louis
1.53
ST. LOUIS
Toronto
3.4
TORONTO
Simulated Score
St. Louis
3
ST. LOUIS
Toronto
5
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Maple Leafs
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Maple Leafs
Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Maple Leafs (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.9
D
Sim
Maple Leafs (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 4.9
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 28, 2026
TOR @ STL
1 - 5
Nov 18, 2025
STL @ TOR
2 - 3
Nov 2, 2024
TOR @ STL
2 - 4
Oct 24, 2024
STL @ TOR
5 - 1
Feb 19, 2024
TOR @ STL
4 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5)
+33.1% more
Toronto: 6.4
vs
St. Louis: 4.8
Shots on Goal (L5)
+11.7% more
Toronto: 29.8
vs
St. Louis: 26.7
Power Play % (L5)
+5.2%
Toronto: 10.6%
vs
St. Louis: 5.4%
Hits (L5)
+8.9% more
St. Louis: 24.5
vs
Toronto: 22.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
STL Score
1.5
5
TOR Score
3.4
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
16.1 / 16.0
8.0 / 23.0
Faceoff %
47.7 / 48.9
68.3 / 31.7
Hits
22.3 / 24.5
21.0 / 24.0
Power Play %
10.6 / 5.4
0.0 / 50.0
Shots on Goal
29.8 / 26.7
41.0 / 27.0
Takeaways
6.4 / 4.8
4.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
STL
TOR
STL
ML
50%
2-2
33%
1-2
50%
2-2
67%
2-1
ATS
0%
0-4
67%
2-1
75%
3-1
33%
1-2
TTL
100%
4-0
50%
1-1-1
75%
3-1
50%
1-1-1
Contextual Game News
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