PHILADELPHIA
FLYERSPHI
1-4-0 | Road
3
WASHINGTON
CAPITALSWSH
4-1-0 | Home
6
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Ivan Fedotov
#82 | G@
GOALTENDER
Logan Thompson
#48 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ivan Fedotov | None-None | 4.11 | 0.826 | -- |
| Logan Thompson | None-None | 3.00 | 0.897 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
4.11
GAA
Ldr 3.00
0.826
Save %
Ldr 0.897
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
FLYERS
0%
CAPITALS
100%
FLYERS
--
CAPITALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Philadelphia)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around PHI -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)
PHI By 1 goal
17.8%
PHI By 2-3 goals
19.6%
WSH By 1 goal
17.1%
WSH By 2-3 goals
17.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Philadelphia
2.73
PHILADELPHIA
Washington
2.64
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
Philadelphia
4
PHILADELPHIA
Washington
7
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Flyers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Capitals
Win
50% Win Prob
A
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Flyers (-0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -0.1
D
Sim
Capitals (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 5.4
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 11.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 31, 2026
PHI @ WSH
4 - 6
Mar 11, 2026
WSH @ PHI
1 - 4
Feb 25, 2026
PHI @ WSH
1 - 3
Feb 3, 2026
WSH @ PHI
2 - 4
Sep 25, 2025
PHI @ WSH
1 - 5
Key Model Drivers
Power Play % (L5)
+2.9%
Philadelphia: 9.3%
vs
Washington: 6.4%
Takeaways (L5)
+32.0% more
Washington: 8.0
vs
Philadelphia: 6.1
Shots on Goal (L5)
+17.8% more
Washington: 29.4
vs
Philadelphia: 24.9
Hits (L5)
+11.7% more
Washington: 28.3
vs
Philadelphia: 25.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHI Score
2.7
3
WSH Score
2.6
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
17.3 / 15.8
20.0 / 11.0
Faceoff %
48.3 / 48.9
38.2 / 61.8
Hits
28.3 / 25.3
16.0 / 32.0
Power Play %
6.4 / 9.3
0.0 / 50.0
Shots on Goal
29.4 / 24.9
25.0 / 29.0
Takeaways
8.0 / 6.1
5.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
PHI
WSH
PHI
ML
100%
3-0
75%
3-1
67%
2-1
50%
2-2
ATS
100%
3-0
25%
1-3
67%
2-1
25%
1-3
TTL
33%
1-2
25%
1-3
33%
1-2
50%
2-2
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