WASHINGTON
CAPITALSWSH
3-1-0 | Road
4
PHILADELPHIA
FLYERSPHI
1-3-0 | Home
1
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Charlie Lindgren
#79 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Egor Zamula
#5 | D| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Lindgren | None-None | 1.00 | 0.944 | -- |
| Egor Zamula | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
1.00
GAA
--
0.944
Save %
--
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
CAPITALS
100%
FLYERS
0%
CAPITALS
--
FLYERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.7
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.7 points (Philadelphia)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around PHI -0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)
WSH By 1 goal
13.7%
WSH By 2-3 goals
11.5%
PHI By 1 goal
19.6%
PHI By 2-3 goals
26.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
2.37
WASHINGTON
Philadelphia
3.1
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
Washington
4
WASHINGTON
Philadelphia
3
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Flyers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Capitals
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Flyers (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -0.7
D
Sim
Capitals (-0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 5.5
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 31, 2026
PHI @ WSH
4 - 6
Mar 11, 2026
WSH @ PHI
1 - 4
Feb 25, 2026
PHI @ WSH
1 - 3
Feb 3, 2026
WSH @ PHI
2 - 4
Sep 25, 2025
PHI @ WSH
1 - 5
Key Model Drivers
Power Play % (L5)
+4.3%
Philadelphia: 14.0%
vs
Washington: 9.6%
Faceoff % (L5)
+3.7%
Philadelphia: 49.7%
vs
Washington: 46.1%
Takeaways (L5)
+21.7% more
Washington: 6.5
vs
Philadelphia: 5.1
Hits (L5)
+18.4% more
Washington: 32.4
vs
Philadelphia: 26.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
2.4
4
PHI Score
3.1
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
17.7 / 17.9
12.0 / 16.0
Faceoff %
49.7 / 46.1
47.1 / 52.9
Hits
26.5 / 32.4
23.0 / 20.0
Power Play %
1398.0 / 964.0
0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
28.4 / 29.6
18.0 / 29.0
Takeaways
5.1 / 6.5
8.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
WSH
PHI
WSH
ML
75%
3-1
100%
3-0
50%
2-2
67%
2-1
ATS
25%
1-3
100%
3-0
25%
1-3
67%
2-1
TTL
25%
1-3
33%
1-2
50%
2-2
33%
1-2
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