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CALGARY

FLAMESCGY

2-0-0  |  Road

4
FINAL
Sun, Oct 13 • 8:00 PM ET
Rogers Place
View Odds Details →

EDMONTON

OILERSEDM

0-2-0  |  Home

1
Goaltending
Brayden Pachal
GOALTENDER

Brayden Pachal

#94 | Defense
@
Mattias Ekholm
GOALTENDER

Mattias Ekholm

#14 | Defense
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Brayden Pachal None-None -- -- --
Mattias Ekholm None-None -- -- --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
-- GAA --
-- Save % --
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
FLAMES
0%
📊
OILERS
100%
FLAMES --
OILERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
CALGARY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (Calgary)
FlamesCGY (-3.5) 0 OilersEDM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Flames Cover

75.8%

Oilers Cover

24.2%

-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around CGY -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CGY)

CGY By 1 goal

19.4%

CGY By 2-3 goals

33.3%

EDM By 1 goal

9.8%

EDM By 2-3 goals

6.6%

AI Model Projected Score
3.59
CALGARY
2.19
EDMONTON
Simulated Score
3
CALGARY
4
EDMONTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Flames Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Oilers Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Flames (-0) Win
Proj Goals: -1.4
D
Sim Oilers (+0) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 5.8
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 4, 2026 EDM @ CGY 3 - 4
Dec 27, 2025 EDM @ CGY 2 - 3
Dec 23, 2025 CGY @ EDM 1 - 5
Oct 8, 2025 CGY @ EDM 4 - 3
Mar 29, 2025 CGY @ EDM 2 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +26.3% more
Calgary: 22.5 vs Edmonton: 16.6
Power Play % (L5) +11.8%
Calgary: 27.6% vs Edmonton: 15.8%
Blocked Shots (L5) +11.0% more
Calgary: 15.6 vs Edmonton: 13.8
Takeaways (L5) +78.2% more
Edmonton: 10.3 vs Calgary: 5.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CGY Score 3.6 4
EDM Score 2.2 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 13.8 / 15.6 17.0 / 17.0
Faceoff % 55.3 / 46.5 55.8 / 44.2
Hits 16.6 / 22.5 13.0 / 27.0
Power Play % 1579.0 / 2759.0 0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal 30.5 / 31.8 26.0 / 29.0
Takeaways 10.3 / 5.8 8.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
20%TICKETS80%
40%MONEY60%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
93%MONEY7%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
87%TICKETS13%
90%MONEY10%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
EDM
CGY
EDM
CGY
ML
75% 3-1
33% 1-2
50% 2-2
33% 1-2
ATS
75% 3-1
33% 1-2
25% 1-3
33% 1-2
TTL
25% 1-3
67% 2-1
25% 1-3
0% 0-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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