PITTSBURGH
PENGUINSPIT
1-1-0 | Road
2
TORONTO
MAPLE LEAFSTOR
1-1-0 | Home
4
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Joel Blomqvist
#30 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Anthony Stolarz
#41 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joel Blomqvist | None-None | 3.06 | 0.906 | -- |
| Anthony Stolarz | None-None | 2.02 | 0.913 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
3.06
GAA
Ldr 2.02
0.906
Save %
Ldr 0.913
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
PENGUINS
100%
MAPLE LEAFS
0%
PENGUINS
--
MAPLE LEAFS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.8
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.8 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around TOR -1.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
PIT By 1 goal
7.8%
PIT By 2-3 goals
4.7%
TOR By 1 goal
18.4%
TOR By 2-3 goals
36.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
2.22
PITTSBURGH
Toronto
3.98
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
2
PITTSBURGH
Toronto
3
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Maple Leafs
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Maple Leafs
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Maple Leafs (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.8
D
Sim
Maple Leafs (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 6.2
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 23, 2025
PIT @ TOR
3 - 6
Nov 29, 2025
TOR @ PIT
7 - 2
Nov 3, 2025
PIT @ TOR
3 - 4
Mar 2, 2025
TOR @ PIT
6 - 5
Dec 7, 2024
TOR @ PIT
2 - 5
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+48.9% more
Toronto: 28.1
vs
Pittsburgh: 18.9
Blocked Shots (L5)
+42.1% more
Toronto: 20.5
vs
Pittsburgh: 14.4
Faceoff % (L5)
+3.7%
Toronto: 56.5%
vs
Pittsburgh: 52.8%
Power Play % (L5)
+36.6%
Pittsburgh: 37.7%
vs
Toronto: 1.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
2.2
2
TOR Score
4.0
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
20.5 / 14.4
17.0 / 10.0
Faceoff %
56.5 / 52.8
53.2 / 46.8
Hits
28.1 / 18.9
17.0 / 13.0
Power Play %
1.0 / 37.7
0.0 / 25.0
Shots on Goal
31.3 / 32.3
33.0 / 23.0
Takeaways
4.7 / 6.2
8.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
PIT
TOR
PIT
ML
50%
2-2
75%
3-1
50%
2-2
25%
1-3
ATS
0%
0-4
75%
3-1
75%
3-1
75%
3-1
TTL
100%
4-0
25%
1-3
75%
3-1
50%
2-2
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