Home / NFL Projections NFL / Colts @ Titans IND @ TEN

INDIANAPOLIS

COLTSIND

2-3  |  Road

20
FINAL
Sun, Oct 13 • 1:00 PM ET
Nissan Stadium
View Odds Details →

TENNESSEE

TITANSTEN

1-3  |  Home

17
Key Game
Arden Key
KEY GAME

Arden Key

#98 | Defensive End
@
Jeffery Simmons
KEY GAME

Jeffery Simmons

#98 | Defensive Tackle
Player
Arden Key None-None
Jeffery Simmons None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
COLTS
0%
📊
TITANS
100%
COLTS --
TITANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
41.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.2
INDIANAPOLIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.2 points (Indianapolis)
ColtsIND (-3.5) 0 TitansTEN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Colts Cover

56.3%

Titans Cover

43.7%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around IND -2.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IND)

IND By 1-6 points

16.9%

IND By 7-13 points

17.0%

TEN By 1-6 points

15.6%

TEN By 7-13 points

13.6%

AI Model Projected Score
21.98
INDIANAPOLIS
19.77
TENNESSEE
Simulated Score
27
INDIANAPOLIS
24
TENNESSEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Colts Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Colts Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Colts (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -2.2
D
Sim Colts (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 41.8
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 26, 2025 TEN @ IND 14 - 38
Sep 21, 2025 IND @ TEN 41 - 20
Dec 22, 2024 TEN @ IND 30 - 38
Oct 13, 2024 IND @ TEN 20 - 17
Dec 3, 2023 IND @ TEN 31 - 28
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +40.6% more
Indianapolis: 246.0 vs Tennessee: 146.1
Total Yards (L5) +30.6% more
Indianapolis: 371.5 vs Tennessee: 257.8
Yards Per Play (L5) +28.0% more
Indianapolis: 6.1 vs Tennessee: 4.4
First Downs (L5) +16.6% more
Indianapolis: 20.8 vs Tennessee: 17.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
IND Score 22.0 20
TEN Score 19.8 17
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.3 / 20.8 16.0 / 20.0
Net Passing Yards 146.1 / 246.0 95.0 / 189.0
Rushing Yards 111.8 / 125.5 146.0 / 80.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.36 / 0.47
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.51 / 0.49
Total Yards 257.8 / 371.5 241.0 / 269.0
Turnovers 1.8 / 1.1 1.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 4.4 / 6.1 4.4 / 4.1
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
64%MONEY36%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
75%MONEY25%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
80%TICKETS20%
74%MONEY26%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IND Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -0.5 ATS +/-: +1.0
TEN
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -7.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IND Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: -0.5 ATS +/-: +1.0
TEN
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -7.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
⚖️ Over/Under
IND
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +5.8
TEN
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -5.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEN
IND
TEN
IND
ML
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
ATS
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
TTL
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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