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TAMPA BAY

BUCCANEERSTB

3-6  |  Road

24
FINAL
Sun, Nov 8 • 8:20 PM ET
Soldier Field
View Odds Details →

CHICAGO

BEARSCHI

7-2  |  Home

27
Key Game
Riley Dixon
KEY GAME

Riley Dixon

#9 | Punter
@
Tory Taylor
KEY GAME

Tory Taylor

#19 | Punter
Player
Riley Dixon None-None
Tory Taylor None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BUCCANEERS
35%
📊
BEARS
65%
▲ Edge: +5.50% (TB)
BUCCANEERS 30% Book Odds: +235
BEARS 74% Book Odds: -290
Book Implied: 29.90% / 74.40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
44.0
Projected
Book Total
47.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +3.5 (Under)
Over 47.5 39%
Under 47.5 61%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.6
CHICAGO
Book Spread
-6.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.1 points (Chicago)
BuccaneersTB (+6.5) 0 BearsCHI (-6.5)
Chicago Bears (-6.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Buccaneers Cover

29.4%

Bears Cover

70.6%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around CHI -7.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHI)

TB By 1-6 points

12.5%

TB By 7-13 points

9.1%

CHI By 1-6 points

16.3%

CHI By 7-13 points

19.5%

AI Model Projected Score
18.2
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 20.50
25.8
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 27
Simulated Score
19
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 20.50
28
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 27
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Bears Win
65% Win Prob
B
Sim Bears Win
81% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bears (-6.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.6
C
Sim Bears (-6.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u47.5 Loss
Proj Total: 44.0
B
Sim u47.5 Loss
Proj Total: 47.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 8, 2026 TB @ CHI 24 - 27
Sep 17, 2023 CHI @ TB 17 - 27
Oct 24, 2021 CHI @ TB 3 - 38
Oct 8, 2020 TB @ CHI 19 - 20
Sep 30, 2018 TB @ CHI 10 - 48
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +197.2% more
Chicago: 247.9 vs Tampa Bay: 83.4
Turnovers (L5) +23.8% more
Chicago: 1.3 vs Tampa Bay: 1.0
Total Yards (L5) +20.6% more
Chicago: 373.6 vs Tampa Bay: 309.8
First Downs (L5) +19.1% more
Chicago: 21.8 vs Tampa Bay: 18.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TB Score 18.2 24
CHI Score 25.8 27
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.8 / 18.3 15.0 / 18.0
Net Passing Yards 247.9 / 83.4 277.0 / 226.0
Rushing Yards 125.7 / 226.4 72.0 / 126.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.54 / 0.17
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.6 0.45 / 0.55
Total Yards 373.6 / 309.8 349.0 / 352.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 1.0 5.0 / 2.0
Yards Per Play 5.3 / 5.0 5.8 / 5.5
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +160 / -192 → +235 / -290 ↑
7%TICKETS93%
31%MONEY69%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +3.5 / -3.5 → +6.5 / -6.5 ↑
29%TICKETS71%
34%MONEY66%
Total (O/U)
Open: 48.5 → 47.5 ↓
70%TICKETS30%
69%MONEY31%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB
3-6-0 (33.3%)
Margin: 2.7 ATS +/-: +4.4
CHI Advantage
7-2-0 (77.8%)
Margin: 6.3 ATS +/-: +4.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB
4-5-0 (44.4%)
Margin: 2.7 ATS +/-: +4.4
CHI Advantage
6-3-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 6.3 ATS +/-: +4.5
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
5-4-0
O: 55.6% / U: 44.4% Total +/-: -1.7
CHI
5-4-0
O: 55.6% / U: 44.4% Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHI
TB
CHI
TB
ML
78% 7-2
44% 4-5
78% 7-2
89% 8-1
ATS
56% 5-4
25% 2-6-1
78% 7-2
62% 5-3-1
TTL
0% 0-9
33% 3-6
11% 1-8
22% 2-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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