Home / NFL Projections NFL / Browns @ Saints CLE @ NO

CLEVELAND

BROWNSCLE

5-4  |  Road

22
FINAL
Sun, Nov 8 • 1:00 PM ET
Caesars Superdome
View Odds Details →

NEW ORLEANS

SAINTSNO

3-5  |  Home

23
Key Game
Corey Bojorquez
KEY GAME

Corey Bojorquez

#13 | Punter
@
Ryan Wright
KEY GAME

Ryan Wright

#17 | Punter
Player
Corey Bojorquez None-None
Ryan Wright None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BROWNS
40%
📊
SAINTS
60%
▲ Edge: +4.60% (CLE)
BROWNS 35% Book Odds: +185
SAINTS 69% Book Odds: -225
Book Implied: 35.10% / 69.20%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
45.4
Projected
Book Total
43.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.9 (Over)
Over 43.5 60%
Under 43.5 40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
+4.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.5 points (Cleveland)
BrownsCLE (+4.5) 0 SaintsNO (-4.5)
Cleveland Browns (+4.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Browns Cover

52.8%

Saints Cover

47.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around CLE +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)

CLE By 1-6 points

16.1%

CLE By 7-13 points

14.6%

NO By 1-6 points

16.7%

NO By 7-13 points

16.1%

AI Model Projected Score
22.2
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 19.50
23.2
NEW ORLEANS
Book Implied: 24
Simulated Score
20
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 19.50
23
NEW ORLEANS
Book Implied: 24
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Saints Win
60% Win Prob
C
Sim Saints Win
61% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Browns (+4.5) Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
C
Sim Browns (+4.5) Win
Proj Spread: +3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o43.5 Win
Proj Total: 45.4
B
Sim o43.5 Win
Proj Total: 43.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 8, 2026 CLE @ NO 22 - 23
Nov 17, 2024 CLE @ NO 14 - 35
Dec 24, 2022 NO @ CLE 17 - 10
Sep 16, 2018 CLE @ NO 18 - 21
Sep 14, 2014 NO @ CLE 24 - 26
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +17.2% more
Cleveland: 95.5 vs New Orleans: 79.1
Total Yards (L5) +11.8% more
Cleveland: 328.7 vs New Orleans: 290.1
Yards Per Play (L5) +10.2% more
Cleveland: 5.2 vs New Orleans: 4.7
Net Passing Yards (L5) +9.5% more
Cleveland: 233.3 vs New Orleans: 211.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CLE Score 22.2 22
NO Score 23.2 23
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.4 / 18.2 21.0 / 15.0
Net Passing Yards 211.0 / 233.3 236.0 / 260.0
Rushing Yards 79.1 / 95.5 160.0 / 95.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.44 / 0.44
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.51 / 0.49
Total Yards 290.1 / 328.7 396.0 / 355.0
Turnovers 1.5 / 1.6 2.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 4.7 / 5.2 5.5 / 5.1
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +160 / -192 → +185 / -225 ↑
37%TICKETS63%
36%MONEY64%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +3.5 / -3.5 → +4.5 / -4.5 ↑
61%TICKETS39%
33%MONEY67%
Total (O/U)
Open: 41.5 → 43.5 ↑
64%TICKETS36%
69%MONEY31%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE Advantage
5-4-0 (55.6%)
Margin: -3.9 ATS +/-: -0.2
NO
3-5-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -3.9 ATS +/-: -2.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE Advantage
6-3-0 (66.7%)
Margin: -3.9 ATS +/-: -0.2
NO
3-5-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -3.9 ATS +/-: -2.6
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
5-4-0
O: 55.6% / U: 44.4% Total +/-: -0.3
NO
5-3-0
O: 62.5% / U: 37.5% Total +/-: +5.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NO
CLE
NO
CLE
ML
50% 4-4
44% 4-5
38% 3-5
67% 6-3
ATS
38% 3-5
44% 4-5
38% 3-5
56% 5-4
TTL
12% 1-7
56% 5-4
25% 2-6
44% 4-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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