Home / NFL Projections NFL / Jaguars @ Ravens JAX @ BAL

JACKSONVILLE

JAGUARSJAX

6-2  |  Road

33
FINAL
Thu, Nov 5 • 8:15 PM ET
M&T Bank Stadium
View Odds Details →

BALTIMORE

RAVENSBAL

4-5  |  Home

10
Key Game
Logan Cooke
KEY GAME

Logan Cooke

#9 | Punter
@
Ryan Eckley
KEY GAME

Ryan Eckley

#30 | Punter
Player
Logan Cooke None-None
Ryan Eckley None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
JAGUARS
41%
📊
RAVENS
59%
▲ Edge: +36.20% (BAL)
JAGUARS 82% Book Odds: -441
RAVENS 23% Book Odds: +340
Book Implied: 81.50% / 22.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
45.5
Projected
Book Total
39.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 (Over)
Over 39.5 68%
Under 39.5 32%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.5
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
+8.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Baltimore)
JaguarsJAX (-8.5) 0 RavensBAL (+8.5)
Baltimore Ravens (+8.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Jaguars Cover

37.4%

Ravens Cover

62.6%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around BAL -4.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)

JAX By 1-6 points

14.4%

JAX By 7-13 points

11.7%

BAL By 1-6 points

16.9%

BAL By 7-13 points

18.3%

AI Model Projected Score
20.5
JACKSONVILLE
Book Implied: 24
25
BALTIMORE
Book Implied: 15.50
Simulated Score
23
JACKSONVILLE
Book Implied: 24
26
BALTIMORE
Book Implied: 15.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Ravens Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Sim Ravens Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Ravens (+8.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.5
A
Sim Ravens (+8.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o39.5 Win
Proj Total: 45.5
A
Sim o39.5 Win
Proj Total: 49.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 5, 2026 JAX @ BAL 33 - 10
Dec 17, 2023 BAL @ JAX 23 - 7
Nov 27, 2022 BAL @ JAX 27 - 28
Dec 20, 2020 JAX @ BAL 14 - 40
Sep 24, 2017 BAL @ JAX 7 - 44
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +68.0% more
Baltimore: 1.6 vs Jacksonville: 0.9
Net Passing Yards (L5) +28.3% more
Jacksonville: 235.4 vs Baltimore: 168.7
Yards Per Play (L5) +26.0% more
Jacksonville: 6.2 vs Baltimore: 4.6
Total Yards (L5) +25.3% more
Jacksonville: 369.5 vs Baltimore: 276.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
JAX Score 20.5 33
BAL Score 25.0 10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 15.4 / 20.3 10.0 / 16.0
Net Passing Yards 168.7 / 235.4 55.0 / 242.0
Rushing Yards 107.5 / 134.1 172.0 / 77.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.29 / 0.33
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.51 / 0.49
Total Yards 276.2 / 369.5 227.0 / 319.0
Turnovers 1.6 / 0.9 3.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 4.6 / 6.2 4.2 / 5.7
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +170 / -205 → -441 / +340 ↓
87%TICKETS13%
65%MONEY35%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +4.5 / -4.5 → -8.5 / +8.5 ↓
69%TICKETS31%
55%MONEY45%
Total (O/U)
Open: 49.5 → 39.5 ↓
81%TICKETS19%
74%MONEY26%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
JAX Advantage
6-2-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 13.5 ATS +/-: +8.9
BAL
4-5-0 (44.4%)
Margin: -5.2 ATS +/-: -6.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
JAX Advantage
5-3-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 13.5 ATS +/-: +8.9
BAL
2-7-0 (22.2%)
Margin: -5.2 ATS +/-: -6.4
⚖️ Over/Under
JAX
4-4-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.6
BAL
5-4-0
O: 55.6% / U: 44.4% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
JAX
BAL
JAX
ML
56% 5-4
50% 4-4
44% 4-5
50% 4-4
ATS
38% 3-5-1
50% 4-4
62% 5-3-1
25% 2-6
TTL
44% 4-5
88% 7-1
44% 4-5
75% 6-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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