Home / NHL Projections NHL / Devils @ Stars NJ @ DAL

NEW JERSEY

DEVILSNJ

8-4-0  |  Road

5
FINAL
Tue, Oct 27 • 8:00 PM ET
American Airlines Center
View Odds Details →

DALLAS

STARSDAL

7-4-1  |  Home

1
Goaltending
Connor Hellebuyck
GOALTENDER

Connor Hellebuyck

#37 | Goaltender
@
Casey DeSmith
GOALTENDER

Casey DeSmith

#1 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Connor Hellebuyck None-None 1.00 0.944 --
Casey DeSmith None-None 5.00 0.815 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
1.00 Ldr GAA 5.00
0.944 Ldr Save % 0.815
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
DEVILS
33%
📊
STARS
67%
▲ Edge: +13.10% (DAL)
DEVILS 51% Book Odds: -102
STARS 54% Book Odds: -118
Book Implied: 50.50% / 54.10%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.5
Projected
Book Total
5.5
Over / Under Line
Over 5.5 50%
Under 5.5 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
NEW JERSEY
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
DevilsNJ (+1.5) 0 StarsDAL (-1.5)
Line aligns with book spread (+1.5)
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Devils Cover

77.3%

Stars Cover

22.7%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around NJ +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NJ)

NJ By 1 goal

9.2%

NJ By 2-3 goals

6.1%

DAL By 1 goal

19.1%

DAL By 2-3 goals

34.1%

AI Model Projected Score
2
NEW JERSEY
Book Implied: 2
3.5
DALLAS
Book Implied: 3.50
Simulated Score
3
NEW JERSEY
Book Implied: 2
2
DALLAS
Book Implied: 3.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Stars Loss
67% Win Prob
B
Sim Devils Win
70% Win Prob
A
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Devils (-1.5) Loss
Proj Goals: +1.5
D
Sim Devils (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u5.5 Loss
Proj Total: 5.5
D
Sim u5.5 Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 27, 2026 NJ @ DAL 5 - 1
Mar 24, 2026 NJ @ DAL 6 - 4
Dec 3, 2025 DAL @ NJ 3 - 0
Mar 4, 2025 NJ @ DAL 3 - 4
Feb 22, 2025 DAL @ NJ 4 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Power Play % (L5) +9.7%
Dallas: 29.4% vs New Jersey: 19.7%
Takeaways (L5) +32.5% more
New Jersey: 4.9 vs Dallas: 3.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NJ Score 2.0 5
DAL Score 3.5 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 13.9 / 13.9 17.0 / 12.0
Faceoff % 53.7 / 52.2 53.8 / 46.2
Hits 15.8 / 16.8 25.0 / 31.0
Power Play % 2943.0 / 1969.0 0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal 32.7 / 31.0 18.0 / 27.0
Takeaways 3.3 / 4.9 5.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +120 / -142 → -102 / -118 ↓
22%TICKETS78%
30%MONEY70%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
64%TICKETS36%
37%MONEY63%
Total (O/U)
Open: 5.5 → 5.5
93%TICKETS7%
92%MONEY8%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
NJ
DAL
NJ
ML
58% 11-8
57% 12-9
47% 9-10
67% 14-7
ATS
37% 7-12
43% 9-12
53% 10-9
52% 11-10
TTL
63% 12-7
42% 8-11-2
58% 11-8
47% 9-10-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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