Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Miami @ Notre Dame MIA @ ND

MIAMI

MIAMIMIA

8-1  |  Road

24
FINAL
Sat, Nov 7 • 7:30 PM ET
Notre Dame Stadium
View Odds Details →

NOTRE DAME

NOTRE DAMEND

8-1  |  Home

31
Key Game
Dylan Joyce
KEY GAME

Dylan Joyce

#94 | Punter
@
Jasper Scaife
KEY GAME

Jasper Scaife

#39 | Punter
Player
Dylan Joyce None-None
Jasper Scaife None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MIAMI
78%
📊
NOTRE DAME
22%
▲ Edge: +48% (MIA)
MIAMI 30% Book Odds: +230
NOTRE DAME 72% Book Odds: -257
Book Implied: 30.30% / 72%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
53.0
Projected
Book Total
54.0
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +1.0 (Under)
Over 54.0 47%
Under 54.0 53%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.4
MIAMI
Book Spread
+7.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +20.9 points (Miami)
MiamiMIA (+7.5) 0 Notre DameND (-7.5)
Miami Hurricanes (+7.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Miami Cover

83.1%

Notre Dame Cover

16.9%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around MIA -13.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)

MIA By 1-6 points

13.3%

MIA By 7-13 points

19.2%

ND By 1-6 points

8.3%

ND By 7-13 points

5.0%

AI Model Projected Score
33.2
MIAMI
Book Implied: 23.20
19.8
NOTRE DAME
Book Implied: 30.80
Simulated Score
24
MIAMI
Book Implied: 23.20
31
NOTRE DAME
Book Implied: 30.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Miami Loss
78% Win Prob
A
Sim Notre Dame Win
75% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Miami (+7.5) Win
Proj Spread: -13.4
A
Sim Miami (+7.5) Win
Proj Spread: +7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u54.0 Loss
Proj Total: 53.0
D
Sim o54.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 7, 2026 MIA @ ND 24 - 31
Aug 31, 2025 ND @ MIA 24 - 27
Nov 11, 2017 ND @ MIA 8 - 41
Oct 29, 2016 MIA @ ND 27 - 30
Key Model Drivers
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +12.0% more
Miami: 0.6 vs Notre Dame: 0.4
First Downs (L5) +8.6% more
Miami: 25.9 vs Notre Dame: 23.7
Total Yards (L5) +8.3% more
Miami: 486.7 vs Notre Dame: 446.4
Rushing Yards (L5) +19.1% more
Notre Dame: 204.0 vs Miami: 171.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIA Score 33.2 24
ND Score 19.8 31
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.7 / 25.9 22.0 / 21.0
Rushing Yards 204.0 / 171.3 93.0 / 101.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.6 0.36 / 0.43
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.52 / 0.48
Total Yards 446.4 / 486.7 412.0 / 377.0
Turnovers 0.3 / 0.3 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +195 / -238 → +230 / -257 ↑
43%TICKETS57%
20%MONEY80%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +6.5 / -6.5 → +7.5 / -7.5 ↑
78%TICKETS22%
70%MONEY30%
Total (O/U)
Open: 54.5 → 54 ↓
25%TICKETS75%
40%MONEY60%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
8-1-0 (88.9%)
Margin: 25.8 ATS +/-: +2.9
ND
8-1-0 (88.9%)
Margin: 24.8 ATS +/-: -1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA Advantage
6-3-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 25.8 ATS +/-: +2.9
ND
4-5-0 (44.4%)
Margin: 24.8 ATS +/-: -1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
8-1-0
O: 88.9% / U: 11.1% Total +/-: +10.4
ND
6-3-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +2.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ND
MIA
ND
MIA
ML
89% 8-1
89% 8-1
89% 8-1
100% 9-0
ATS
56% 5-4
56% 5-4
56% 5-4
44% 4-5
TTL
44% 4-5
56% 5-4
56% 5-4
78% 7-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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