TORONTO
MAPLE LEAFSTOR
7-5-2 | Road
2
CALGARY
FLAMESCGY
5-6-0 | Home
5
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Sergei Bobrovsky
#72 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Devin Cooley
#1 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergei Bobrovsky | None-None | 3.05 | 0.906 | -- |
| Devin Cooley | None-None | 2.01 | 0.929 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
3.05
GAA
Ldr 2.01
0.906
Save %
Ldr 0.929
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
MAPLE LEAFS
50%
FLAMES
50%
▲ Edge: +4.60% (CGY)
MAPLE LEAFS
57%
Book Odds: -135
FLAMES
45%
Book Odds: +122
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.5
Projected
Book Total
6.5
Over / Under Line
Over 6.5
50%
Under 6.5
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
CALGARY
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around CGY +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CGY)
TOR By 1 goal
19.1%
TOR By 2-3 goals
34.1%
CGY By 1 goal
9.2%
CGY By 2-3 goals
6.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
4
TORONTO
Book Implied: 4
Calgary
2.5
CALGARY
Book Implied: 2.50
Simulated Score
Toronto
2
TORONTO
Book Implied: 4
Calgary
4
CALGARY
Book Implied: 2.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Maple Leafs
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Sim
Flames
Win
84% Win Prob
A
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Flames (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Goals: +1.5
D
Sim
Flames (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
u6.5
Loss
Proj Total: 6.5
D
Sim
u6.5
Loss
Proj Total: 6.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 26, 2026
TOR @ CGY
2 - 5
Feb 2, 2026
TOR @ CGY
4 - 2
Oct 28, 2025
CGY @ TOR
3 - 4
Mar 17, 2025
CGY @ TOR
2 - 6
Feb 4, 2025
TOR @ CGY
6 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Shots on Goal (L5)
+9.2% more
Toronto: 30.1
vs
Calgary: 27.3
Faceoff % (L5)
+2.7%
Toronto: 50.8%
vs
Calgary: 48.1%
Hits (L5)
+9.2% more
Calgary: 21.1
vs
Toronto: 19.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
4.0
2
CGY Score
2.5
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
14.4 / 14.0
4.0 / 16.0
Faceoff %
48.1 / 50.8
41.4 / 58.6
Hits
21.1 / 19.3
24.0 / 23.0
Power Play %
54.7 / 55.5
20.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
27.3 / 30.1
34.0 / 28.0
Takeaways
4.3 / 4.3
6.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -135 / +114
→
-135 / +122
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 6.5
→
6.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CGY
TOR
CGY
TOR
ML
47%
9-10
67%
14-7
53%
10-9
52%
11-10
ATS
32%
6-13
57%
12-9
58%
11-8
67%
14-7
TTL
50%
9-9-1
48%
10-11
39%
7-11-1
52%
11-10
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