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NEW YORK

ISLANDERSNYI

5-4-2  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sun, Oct 25 • 6:00 PM ET
American Airlines Center
View Odds Details →

DALLAS

STARSDAL

7-3-1  |  Home

6
Goaltending
Ilya Sorokin
GOALTENDER

Ilya Sorokin

#30 | Goaltender
@
Jake Oettinger
GOALTENDER

Jake Oettinger

#29 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Ilya Sorokin None-None 6.01 0.842 --
Jake Oettinger None-None 3.00 0.850 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
6.01 GAA Ldr 3.00
0.842 Save % Ldr 0.850
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
ISLANDERS
31%
📊
STARS
69%
▲ Edge: +5.10% (DAL)
ISLANDERS 39% Book Odds: +159
STARS 64% Book Odds: -177
Book Implied: 38.60% / 63.90%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.5
Projected
Book Total
5.5
Over / Under Line
Over 5.5 49%
Under 5.5 51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
NEW YORK
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
IslandersNYI (+1.5) 0 StarsDAL (-1.5)
Line aligns with book spread (+1.5)
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Islanders Cover

77.3%

Stars Cover

22.7%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around NYI +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYI)

NYI By 1 goal

9.2%

NYI By 2-3 goals

6.1%

DAL By 1 goal

19.1%

DAL By 2-3 goals

34.1%

AI Model Projected Score
2
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 2
3.5
DALLAS
Book Implied: 3.50
Simulated Score
2
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 2
3
DALLAS
Book Implied: 3.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Stars Win
69% Win Prob
A
Sim Stars Win
69% Win Prob
A
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Islanders (-1.5) Win
Proj Goals: +1.5
D
Sim Islanders (+1.5) Loss
Proj Goals: +1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u5.5 Loss
Proj Total: 5.5
D
Sim u5.5 Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 25, 2026 NYI @ DAL 3 - 6
Mar 26, 2026 DAL @ NYI 1 - 2
Nov 18, 2025 NYI @ DAL 3 - 2
Feb 23, 2025 DAL @ NYI 4 - 3
Oct 12, 2024 NYI @ DAL 0 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5) +48.5% more
Dallas: 4.5 vs New York: 3.0
Blocked Shots (L5) +14.8% more
Dallas: 14.4 vs New York: 12.6
Hits (L5) +18.3% more
New York: 23.6 vs Dallas: 19.2
Power Play % (L5) +6.9%
New York: 26.1% vs Dallas: 19.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYI Score 2.0 3
DAL Score 3.5 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 14.4 / 12.6 13.0 / 13.0
Faceoff % 58.1 / 58.0 45.0 / 55.0
Hits 19.2 / 23.6 9.0 / 29.0
Power Play % 19.2 / 26.1 50.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal 30.0 / 30.5 38.0 / 20.0
Takeaways 4.5 / 3.0 1.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +170 / -205 → +159 / -177 ↓
15%TICKETS85%
10%MONEY90%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
53%TICKETS47%
42%MONEY58%
Total (O/U)
Open: 5.5 → 5.5
83%TICKETS17%
87%MONEY13%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
NYI
DAL
NYI
ML
56% 10-8
67% 12-6
44% 8-10
61% 11-7
ATS
33% 6-12
44% 8-10
50% 9-9
50% 9-9
TTL
61% 11-7
24% 4-13-1
56% 10-8
65% 11-6-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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