TAMPA BAY
LIGHTNINGTB
7-3-1 | Road
4
UTAH
MAMMOTHUTA
8-4-0 | Home
5
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Dennis Hildeby
#35 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Karel Vejmelka
#70 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dennis Hildeby | None-None | 4.86 | 0.821 | -- |
| Karel Vejmelka | None-None | 3.89 | 0.906 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
4.86
GAA
Ldr 3.89
0.821
Save %
Ldr 0.906
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
LIGHTNING
53%
MAMMOTH
47%
▲ Edge: +8.80% (TB)
LIGHTNING
44%
Book Odds: +128
MAMMOTH
59%
Book Odds: -141
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.0
Projected
Book Total
6.5
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 6.5
41%
Under 6.5
59%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.1 points (Tampa Bay)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around TB -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)
TB By 1 goal
18.9%
TB By 2-3 goals
34.9%
UTA By 1 goal
8.6%
UTA By 2-3 goals
5.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Tampa Bay
3.8
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 2.50
Utah
2.2
UTAH
Book Implied: 4
Simulated Score
Tampa Bay
2
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 2.50
Utah
4
UTAH
Book Implied: 4
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Lightning
Loss
53% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mammoth
Win
84% Win Prob
A
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
Lightning (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.6
A
Sim
Mammoth (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
u6.5
Loss
Proj Total: 6.0
B
Sim
u6.5
Loss
Proj Total: 6.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 24, 2026
TB @ UTA
4 - 5
Jan 26, 2026
UTA @ TB
0 - 2
Nov 2, 2025
TB @ UTA
4 - 2
Mar 27, 2025
UTA @ TB
0 - 8
Mar 22, 2025
TB @ UTA
4 - 6
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5)
+15.6% more
Tampa Bay: 3.5
vs
Utah: 2.9
Hits (L5)
+23.1% more
Utah: 28.3
vs
Tampa Bay: 23.0
Power Play % (L5)
+14.2%
Utah: 45.1%
vs
Tampa Bay: 31.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TB Score
3.8
4
UTA Score
2.2
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
12.3 / 13.4
12.0 / 13.0
Faceoff %
55.3 / 54.5
60.8 / 39.2
Hits
28.3 / 23.0
26.0 / 23.0
Power Play %
45.1 / 31.0
33.3 / 33.3
Shots on Goal
31.0 / 30.3
28.0 / 32.0
Takeaways
2.9 / 3.5
3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +110 / -130
→
+128 / -141
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 6.5
→
6.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UTA
TB
UTA
TB
ML
67%
12-6
50%
9-9
61%
11-7
78%
14-4
ATS
50%
9-9
50%
9-9
50%
9-9
56%
10-8
TTL
33%
6-12
41%
7-10-1
61%
11-7
41%
7-10-1
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