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TORONTO

MAPLE LEAFSTOR

7-4-2  |  Road

7
FINAL
Sat, Oct 24 • 7:00 PM ET
Rogers Place
View Odds Details →

EDMONTON

OILERSEDM

8-2-1  |  Home

2
Goaltending
Anthony Stolarz
GOALTENDER

Anthony Stolarz

#41 | Goaltender
@
Tristan Jarry
GOALTENDER

Tristan Jarry

#35 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Anthony Stolarz None-None 2.00 0.938 --
Tristan Jarry None-None 6.03 0.833 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
2.00 Ldr GAA 6.03
0.938 Ldr Save % 0.833
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
MAPLE LEAFS
28%
📊
OILERS
72%
▲ Edge: +13.90% (EDM)
MAPLE LEAFS 44% Book Odds: +125
OILERS 58% Book Odds: -138
Book Implied: 44.40% / 58%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
7.0
Over / Under Line
Over 7.0 42%
Under 7.0 58%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
TORONTO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Toronto)
Maple LeafsTOR (+1.5) 0 OilersEDM (-1.5)
Toronto Maple Leafs (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Maple Leafs Cover

75.8%

Oilers Cover

24.2%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around TOR +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)

TOR By 1 goal

9.8%

TOR By 2-3 goals

6.6%

EDM By 1 goal

19.4%

EDM By 2-3 goals

33.3%

AI Model Projected Score
2.8
TORONTO
Book Implied: 2.80
4.2
EDMONTON
Book Implied: 4.20
Simulated Score
2
TORONTO
Book Implied: 2.80
3
EDMONTON
Book Implied: 4.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Oilers Loss
72% Win Prob
A
Sim Oilers Loss
69% Win Prob
A
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Maple Leafs (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: +1.4
D
Sim Maple Leafs (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI u7.0 Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
B
Sim u7.0 Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 24, 2026 TOR @ EDM 7 - 2
Feb 3, 2026 TOR @ EDM 5 - 2
Dec 13, 2025 EDM @ TOR 6 - 3
Feb 1, 2025 TOR @ EDM 4 - 3
Nov 16, 2024 EDM @ TOR 3 - 4
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +20.6% more
Edmonton: 21.0 vs Toronto: 17.4
Power Play % (L5) +19.0%
Edmonton: 52.2% vs Toronto: 33.2%
Shots on Goal (L5) +19.2% more
Toronto: 29.6 vs Edmonton: 23.9
Blocked Shots (L5) +9.3% more
Toronto: 15.5 vs Edmonton: 14.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TOR Score 2.8 7
EDM Score 4.2 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 14.1 / 15.5 14.0 / 11.0
Faceoff % 47.3 / 51.2 50.0 / 50.0
Hits 21.0 / 17.4 42.0 / 23.0
Power Play % 52.2 / 33.2 33.3 / 100.0
Shots on Goal 23.9 / 29.6 32.0 / 31.0
Takeaways 3.2 / 3.5 3.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +145 / -175 → +125 / -138 ↓
12%TICKETS88%
12%MONEY88%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
46%TICKETS54%
8%MONEY92%
Total (O/U)
Open: 6.5 → 7 ↑
94%TICKETS6%
97%MONEY3%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
EDM
TOR
EDM
TOR
ML
65% 13-7
65% 13-7
60% 12-8
50% 10-10
ATS
55% 11-9
55% 11-9
45% 9-11
65% 13-7
TTL
30% 6-14
50% 10-10
40% 8-12
50% 10-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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